A stampede of FF retirements would be a good strategy – but it's not actually happening, writes NOEL WHELAN
TOO MUCH has been made of the retirements already announced in the 30th Dáil. When set in context, the pattern of retirements for the forthcoming election is unlikely to differ from previous elections. Between 15 and 25 sitting TDs always retire at each election. If it seems like there has been a flood of retirements of late, it is because now that a spring election is certain, the timetable for candidate selection and retirement decisions has accordioned sharply.
A few months ago, the announcement by three female deputies that they would not contest the election led to much overly dramatic commentary to the effect that women TDs were giving up on politics. In reality, two were stepping down at retirement age and each with relatives interested in the succession, while the third, Olwyn Enright, had particular family-related reasons, complicated by the fact that her husband represents a constituency hundreds of miles away from her own.
This week, the announcement of two Fianna Fáil retirements – those of Dermot Ahern and Rory O’Hanlon – generated much talk about how the transformed political landscape is the driving force behind their decisions to quit. The notion that Fianna Fáil TDs are rushing towards the departure door to avoid imminent electoral defeat doesn’t stand up to closer scrutiny.
The key determinants of political retirement patterns, as with all careers, are the interrelated factors of age, career length and pension entitlements.
The majority from all parties who have announced that they are not contesting the election are in their mid-60s or older and/or have more than 20 years’ service.
As of now, more Fine Gael deputies are retiring than Fianna Fáilers. The prospect of being government backbenchers has not tempted the older Fine Gael guys to stay one more term. Apart from Enright, all are men in their 60s, bar one man in his 70s. They include Ulick Burke and Paul Connaughton in Galway East, Jim O’Keeffe and PJ Sheehan in Cork South West and Seymour Crawford in Monaghan. Pádraic McCormack in Galway West actually announced his retirement before the 2007 election only to be prevailed on to fight one more time. McCormack is definitely going this time while the other man pressed back into action in 2007, Dinny McGinley in Donegal South West, is expected to announce his retirement again shortly.
Even the Labour Party, on the cusp of a return to power and an exponential rise in its seat numbers, has had two retirement announcements, namely Liz McManus in Wicklow and Mary Upton in Dublin South Central, both in their 60s.
By comparison, as of now, only four Fianna Fáil retirements have been announced. Rory O’Hanlon, in his 70s, has been a deputy for 33 years and was automatically returned in 2007, so his retirement is not a surprise. As it happens, the other three retirements are people who, even allowing for the further collapse in Fianna Fáil support, were among the most likely to hold their seats. If anything, it was concern that he might win which prompted Dermot Ahern not to contest. Jim McDaid’s decision three weeks ago to resign from the Dáil immediately was peculiar but the fact that he was not contesting the next election came as no surprise. Tom Kitt came close to chucking it all in the night he was demoted from Cabinet by Brian Cowen.
The Dublin South deputy has since announced he will not contest the next election, although he has been more equivocal on the point of late.
Because it is – for the moment – the largest party in Dáil Éireann, Fianna Fáil is ultimately likely to have the greatest number of retirements. This was also the case in 2007 when no fewer than 11 Fianna Fáil deputies stepped down, most again of retirement age and/or with in excess of 25 years in the Dáil. They included Joe Walsh, Danny Wallace, Joe Jacob, Noel Davern, Síle de Valera, Dermot Fitzpatrick and Michael Collins. Apart from O’Hanlon, McDaid and Ceann Comhairle Séamus Kirk, there are 16 other Fianna Fáil deputies in their 60s, and indeed one in his 70s. It is from this group that further retirements are likely to emerge. A further three sitting Fianna Fáil TDs, including Bertie Ahern, will be almost 60 when the election is called.
Interestingly, in 2007, a couple of one-term Fianna Fáil deputies, Tony Dempsey and Jim Glennon, abruptly decided they had had enough of politics. The Independent Mildred Fox was also a surprise retirement in 2007 but her reasons were not dissimilar to those which have influenced Olwyn Enright. These, however, are the exceptions which prove the rule.
On Friday morning, speaking in the aftermath of the most recent Red C poll, Fianna Fáil backbencher Noel O’Flynn suggested to Pat Kenny that the busiest office in Leinster House currently is the desk where deputies can inquire about their financial entitlements if they lose their seats.
However, the level of such entitlements will not of itself influence a decision to stand in the election since deputies will have the same entitlements if they fight and lose as they would have if they decide not to fight.
A spate of retirements would actually suit Fianna Fáil at the moment. A party whose national poll rating is going south of 20 per cent should ideally be running only one candidate in each three-seat and four-seat constituency and at most run two candidates in each five-seater. As of now, Fianna Fáil is overloaded with incumbents contesting relative to its likely vote share. In many constituencies, there is a risk that evenly-balanced incumbents might split the party’s remaining support and each be well short of a quota.
A stampede of retirements is what Fianna Fáil strategists should be hoping for but it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen.