The collapse of Ms Adi Roche's vote in the presidential election campaign is the most striking finding of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. From a position where, two weeks ago, Ms Roche attracted 22 per cent of the popular vote, her support was measured at 13 per cent last weekend. The late entry of Mr Derek Nally into the race would appear to be the chief factor behind the slide in support for Ms Roche. His tally of 7 per cent popular support - the same as that achieved by Mrs Rosemary Scallon (Dana) - was taken entirely from Ms Roche's support base. At this stage, it would seem that the final battle for the position of President - following the elimination of the weaker candidates - will be between Ms Mary McAleese and Ms Mary Banotti. With almost three weeks to go until polling day on October 30th, it would be unwise to draw a firm conclusion as to the eventual outcome. But Ms McAleese, the nominee of both the Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats parties, must be regarded as the firm favourite to succeed Mrs Mary Robinson,
Second, third and fourth preference votes will eventually decide the outcome of this election. And one of the most striking aspects of the current campaign has been the fragmentation of party support when the electorate came to consider its choices. The electorate's desire for a non-political President translates strongly into voting intentions. Only 50 per cent of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael supporters indicate they will vote for their party's nominee and this figure falls to 33 per cent in the case of the Labour Party. Not only first preference votes are affected in this fashion. Second preference votes also split across party lines, with Mary McAleese picking up strong support at all stages. The good news for the Coalition parties on the presidential front is somewhat counteracted by negative findings in relation to the handling of the Ray Burke affair, which led to last week's resignation by the Minister for Foreign Affairs. Almost half of the electorate (48 per cent) were of the view that the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, had handled the issue badly, with only 30 per cent taking a positive view. The Tanaiste, Ms Harney's handling of the issue was viewed in a less critical light. Within their parties, however, majorities of both Fianna Fail and Progressive Democrats supporters expressed approval of the way the issue had been handled.
The other matter that should give both the Government and opposition parties pause is the overwhelming rejection by the electorate of a proposal to specifically limit public access to Cabinet discussions by way of a referendum. The wording of the referendum on Cabinet confidentiality, to be held on the same day as the presidential election, was devised by the last government to modify a recent Supreme Court ban on the disclosure of all such discussions. And the terms were adopted without change by the present Government. Although the proposed referendum would allow limited access to Cabinet discussions, by way of a judicial tribunal, the public is of the view that it does not go far enough. Almost three-quarters of those surveyed (72 per cent) favoured general access to all relevant information. In those circumstances, rather than amend the Constitution at this time to provide for severely qualified access, the Coalition and opposition parties should postpone the referendum in favour of devising a more transparent approach to the functioning of government.