The Irish and British Governments have made the best of a critically bad situation by postponing for 48 hours a decision to suspend the various institutions under the Belfast Agreement. The decision is a temporary expedient. It cannot be sustained if there is not early and significant movement from the IRA on arms decommissioning. Given the failure of the Government's efforts over the weekend to convince republicans of the need to live up to their commitments in that regard, however, hope must be tempered with realism.
Publication of the report by the chairman of the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning, Gen. John de Chastelain, concerning his meetings with IRA interlocutors, has been withheld by the two governments in order to leave the situation as fluid as possible. There is, apparently, little of comfort in what the general has reported. Certainly, there is no "product" from the IRA. Nor is there a timetable or any set of proposed modalities for decommissioning. It seems that Gen. de Chastelain has not even had crumbs from his encounters with the IRA's interlocutor.
The IRA explained its involvement with the Commission in terms of "moving the situation out of the political vacuum", rather than putting weapons beyond use. In a statement, the organisation said its interlocutor had stressed its commitment to the peace process; that the IRA wanted a permanent peace; that its guns were silent and that there was "no threat to the peace process from the IRA." There is no real advance there. The republicans themselves will be the authors of a political vacuum if they fail to live up to what was set down in the Belfast Agreement and confirmed since in the Mitchell review.
Pressure is building on republicans. In the Dail, the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, recalled the principles accepted by Sinn Fein and the pro-Agreement parties, last June, as a way forward. They were: the establishment of an inclusive executive; decommissioning of all paramilitary arms by May, 2000 and decommissioning to be carried out by the Independent Commission. The idea of giving up a few weapons would not be satisfactory. Decommissioning had to be fully dealt with by May, 2000, he declared.
It has been suggested that republicans have now been genuinely taken by surprise by the threat to suspend the Northern institutions because of a lack of progress on decommissioning. They should not have been. They were plainly told on a number of occasions what would happen if the understandings which underpinned the Mitchell review, or their earlier undertakings on decommissioning, were not implemented. Last November, before Mr Trimble "jumped" and sold the idea of Sinn Fein's participation in an inclusive executive to his followers, the governments let it be known they would suspend the institutions if progress was not made on decommissioning.
The reluctance of the Government to see a suspension of institutions that are working well is understandable. But putting the institutions into cold storage , from which they may later be revived, is better than having them collapse into chaos. Such a move would also help to protect the leadership of Mr Trimble. Does any serious supporter of the new institutions believe that they could be speedily reconstituted under a new unionist leader? The republicans have matters in their own hands. They purport to be democrats, reflecting the will of the Irish people. If so, they will give Gen. de Chastelain the where-with all to put in a positive report within two days. Otherwise suspension would appear to be inevitable.