WHEN ASKED this week whether he wants to retire and spend more time with his family, Vladimir Putin replied: “Don’t hold your breath.” When asked whether he will stand again as president of Russia in 2012, he said: “I will think about it.” His tantalising refusal to say no underlines just how much at home he is with national leadership as prime minister to President Dmitry Medvedev since last year – and the television skills which help keep him there as he fielded questions for four hours from a national audience in 11 Russian time zones.
Commentators speak of the Putin majority in contemporary Russia – the ease with which he commands approval ratings of about 70 per cent from ordinary citizens and decisive electoral majorities for his party. Since Mr Medvedev comes from the same political family, it is easier to understand why both men appear so relaxed about potential competition for the presidential nomination.
Mr Medvedev was quick to say he too is interested in it. But he wants to avoid rancour and expects to see the issue settled early in 2011 within the existing political elite they both represent.
Mr Putin acknowledges economic performance and social wellbeing are key factors in maintaining their popularity, as are internal security and foreign policy. Both men trade on their success in managing Russia’s recovery from the dire economic downturn in 2000-1, largely on the back of buoyant oil, gas and raw material prices. This puts distance between them and the oligarchies who enriched themselves during the 1990s privatisations which also saw mass impoverishment and humiliation for most of their fellow countrymen. Recent economic contractions have not yet undermined their appeal.
A stronger state at home and abroad, together with Mr Putin’s apparent incorruptibility and capable authoritarianism helped restore national pride. His reference to vigilance against terrorism following 26 deaths in last week’s Moscow St Petersburg train bomb recalls his use of the Chechen crisis to cement his rule. Mr Medvedev used the Georgian crisis similarly last year to strengthen his position as president.
Russia lacks the economic wherewithal to restore its position as a superpower. But its military might, political determination and vast geographical spread under Putin and Medvedev makes it a potent force in its near abroad. Maintaining that role is probably a greater priority for both men than which of them becomes president again in 2012.