ANALYSIS:Barack Obama's first electoral setbacks are down to the economy and Republicans embracing pragmatism, writes LARA MARLOWE
IT’S HARD to say which hurt US president Barack Obama more: losing Democratic blue New Jersey, or the purple – mixed blue and Republican red – state of Virginia. Both governors’ mansions shifted from Democratic to Republican control in Tuesday’s elections.
New Jersey, where Republicans account for only one in five voters, hadn’t elected a Republican to state office in 12 years, and Obama went there five times to support the losing Democratic incumbent Jon Corzine.
In Virginia, 59 per cent of the electorate voted for Obama in 2008, the same percentage that just elected Republican Robert McDonnell as governor. Though Virginia has a habit of electing Democrats to state office, she hadn’t voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964.
Virginia was a new conquest, a test of the Democrats’ ability to consolidate Obama’s victory and build on it. Not only did the GOP snatch Virginia away on Tuesday night, she elected Republicans to all three of the state’s top offices. As a consolation prize, the White House could claim victory in upstate New York’s 23rd congressional district, where the Democrat Bill Owens beat the Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman, becoming the first Democrat to represent northeast New York in more than 100 years.
Past precedents show that Tuesday’s elections are not a reliable basis for predicting what will happen on the crucial first Tuesday of November 2010, when 39 new governors, 38 senators and the entire House of Representatives will be up for grabs. But the results of a hodge-podge of gubernatorial, congressional and mayoral elections and referendums nonetheless offer lessons. First and foremost, to revert to a Clinton-era slogan: It’s the economy, stupid. In exit polls, a majority of voters said unemployment and economic crisis were their greatest worries. In New Jersey, unemployment has reached 9.8 per cent, the highest rate in three decades. Jon Corzine, so forcefully backed by Obama, is a former chairman of Goldman Sachs. The winner, Republican Chris Christie, attacked Corzine for making a shambles of the state budget and for continuing to levy the highest property taxes in America.
Obama’s $787 billion stimulus package and the highest deficits since the second World War have spooked many Independent and centrist voters. McDonnell, the successful Republican candidate in Virginia, played on Americans’ innate fear of big government, and was helped when his Democratic opponent Creigh Deeds admitted with a stammer that he would raise taxes.
The second lesson of the election is that Republicans can win if they embrace practical issues such as fiscal responsibility, but stand to lose where they revert to fighting “culture wars” over issues such as abortion. McDonnell lost momentum only once during the race, when the Deeds campaign dug up a 20-year-old university thesis in which he criticised working mothers, single mothers and homosexuals. Having established himself with right-wing voters as a social conservative in the state assembly, McDonnell evaded those issues in the campaign to make himself more appealing to moderate Republicans and Independent voters.
The former vice-presidential candidate Sarah Palin has emerged as the Joan of Arc of the religious right and the most polarising figure in US politics. McDonnell shunned her offer to campaign for him. When a recorded message by Palin was nonetheless telephoned into Republican homes, McDonnell refused to comment.
Support from Palin and the far right may have been the kiss of death for the Conservative candidate in upstate New York. The Democrats hope the contest has reignited the long-running battle between Mods and Cons (moderates and conservatives).
In a setback for the gay rights movement, conservatives managed to repeal the Maine state assembly’s decision earlier this year to legalise gay marriage, proving that societal questions can still mobilise voters.
As admitted by Haley Barbour, the governor of Mississippi and chairman of the Republican Governors' Association, Tuesday's elections were nota referendum on Obama. Exit polls showed the president remains popular in both New Jersey and Virginia. In New Jersey, 60 per cent said the president did not affect their vote, and among those who were influenced by him nearly half voted to show support. Results were similar in Virginia. But Tuesday's election showed that Obama cannot pull proteges into office on the presidential coat-tails. The lesson will not be lost on conservative "blue dog" Democrats who fear losing their seats if they vote for healthcare and climate change Bills advocated by Obama. The president's uphill battle just became steeper.
Nor can the Democrats count on the floating Independent vote, which split evenly between Obama and John McCain last year. On Tuesday, Independents voted two to one for Republicans, seeming to confirm assertions by White House advisers that most Independents are disaffected Republicans. Obama’s winning coalition of young people, African Americans and Independents deserted the Democrats on Tuesday. One in five voters last year was under age 30; one in 10 on Tuesday. Similarly, one in five voters in 2008 was black; one in seven on Tuesday.
Negative advertising proved counter-productive. Christie, the winner in New Jersey, taunted Corzine to “just say I’m fat” after the losing governor’s campaign mocked his weight. In his victory speech, Christie reminded supporters he’d promised not to malign his opponent from the outset. Likewise, Creigh Deeds’s attempt to tar Robert McDonnell with the brush of religious fundamentalism failed in Virginia.
The election also showed that in US politics, money no longer buys love. Jon Corzine spent up to $28 million of his own money, compared to $9 million for the Christie campaign.
Michael Bloomberg, the billionaire mayor of New York, broke all records by spending $100 million of his own money on the campaign. On the eve of his election, the New York Timessaid it was doubtless wasted money. Bloomberg won only 51 per cent of the vote, to his opponent's 46 per cent. The lavish spending apparently played against him.
Lara Marlowe is Washington Correspondent