Post-election Japan

Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's electoral gamble has paid off spectacularly well

Japanese prime minister Junichiro Koizumi's electoral gamble has paid off spectacularly well. In Sunday's general election, his Liberal Democrat Party secured 296 seats in the 480-seat Diet, 55 more than he needed.

He will now have a majority of 327 along with his coalition partner New Komeito. He has an unchallenged mandate to privatise the country's post office savings system, one of the world's biggest financial institutions, after calling the snap elections to do just that following the refusal of 37 members of the party to support him.

Mr Koizumi's presidential style and theatricality paid high dividends, most notably by targeting these deputies with a group of telegenic young women and men in the constituencies. Voters saw in his single-mindedness a genuine commitment to change policy and shake up his lethargic party.

His success in commanding the election agenda, so that the post office issue completely dominated, put the main opposition Democratic Party of Japan on the defensive throughout the campaign. Efforts by its leader Katsuya Okada to raise pensions, health and relations with China as alternative issues completely failed to catch the imagination of voters or the media, leaving him with no option but to resign after losing 64 seats.

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The Liberal Democrats' political profile has changed substantially with these results. There is a marked shift towards urban and away from rural support, and an increase in the number of women members of parliament from a very low base. The new face of Japanese conservatism catches up with a generation of social change and matches a popular mood of greater confidence reflected in yesterday's news about economic growth.

Mr Koizumi said yesterday he will proceed with post office privatisation. It is a huge operation which channels €2,530 billion in savings and life assurance premiums through the state, including pork barrel spending that has traditionally benefited the LDP's electoral base in poor and disadvantaged areas. The plan is to sell it off over perhaps 10 years. This has already lifted markets and expectations about a restructuring of Japan's financial system.

Despite his electoral triumph Mr Koizumi says he will not contest next September's LDP presidency and does not propose to change the rules. Japanese commentators wonder whether it will be possible to find a suitable successor capable of exploiting this majority - or whether it could become a pyrrhic victory of drift and renewed party divisions. Japan faces many domestic and foreign policy issues, including those raised by Mr Okada during the campaign. They will not go away after his defeat and Mr Koizumi's endorsement.