Pat Leahy: Fianna Fáil is not acting solely in the national interest

Fine words indeed from Micheál Martin this week about the national interest as he announced to the relief of TDs in all parties that he would continue to prop up the Government for another year, sidelining the prospect of a general election next year.

In Brussels, the day after his announcement, where he was knocking about on the outside of the European summit, Martin managed to look offended when it was suggested to him that he would be seeking political credit for his move.

“This isn’t about Fianna Fáil or Fine Gael – it’s about the country,” Martin said with his best-national-interest face on. The suggestion that political interests might have formed part of his calculation almost caused an allergic reaction in the Fianna Fáil leader. The very thought.

In fairness, we shouldn’t be cynical about this. Too many of the ills of modern politics stem from a default position of extreme cynicism about politicians which in many cases is not entirely warranted. And, after all, if you want to present yourself as a mainstream, responsible centre-ground party, then you need to behave in a responsible centre-ground way. But it is right to be sceptical. And the truth is that political considerations certainly played a part in Martin’s decision: he is a politician; he cannot divorce politics from his decision-making.

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Political considerations played a part in Martin's decision: he is a politician; he cannot divorce politics from decision-making

Martin called off a 2019 election not just because he believed it was in the national interest – which is hard to argue against – but because he believed it was in his interest. May was his intended date, I am given to understand, with the realisation that Leo Varadkar might have called it earlier. The review of the confidence-and-supply agreement was going nowhere. The talks were certainly not establishing the foundation for a renewal of the deal. The day when one of the Fine Gael Ministers brought in correspondence to sign more or less summed it up. Both sides realised that the whole thing was a charade, conceived by Martin in case Varadkar might be tempted to dash to the park for a snap election in the autumn.

Health and housing

And he was tempted. He was very tempted, figuring that Fine Gael’s poll numbers swaggering around the place with a 10-point lead over Fianna Fáil, by some measures – aren’t likely to get any better. Discussions about the feasibility of an early election continued until surprisingly recently in Varadkar’s office, I understand. But as argued repeatedly hereabouts, nothing could be done until Brexit was settled. That was Martin’s assessment, too. But Fianna Fáil doesn’t really understand Varadkar, and it knows it didn’t understand Varadkar. So the review of the confidence-and-supply agreement was undertaken as a sort of insurance policy against an autumn. Call it a backstop if you like.

Autumn having concluded, the backstop has elapsed (this one was time-limited). So Martin made his judgment. It was this: he could not have an election on his terms, so he would not have one at all. What are those terms? Martin wants an election he can fight on health and housing. Not on Brexit. This time last year, Varadkar returned from Brussels with the backstop under his arm and saw his poll numbers turbo-charged, as voters responded to the sight of a Taoiseach standing up successfully for Irish interests abroad. Being seen to do so at the expense of the British probably did no harm either. (Even if that is a dangerous road to go down, it is a fact of our politics, and we might as well acknowledge it.) That excited Fine Gael – and it alarmed Fianna Fáil. Digested over months, the lesson for Martin was: we cannot have a Brexit election. That realisation led inexorably to Wednesday’s announcement. Find your strongest ground, and defend it.

Sensible politics

Like any sensible politician, Martin wants to have an election at a time when he stands the best chance of winning it. He knows that beating Varadkar on the seat count is a tall order but elections nowadays are only one phase in winning power – assembling the numbers in the Dáil is the second and perhaps decisive one. If Fianna Fáil is within shouting distance of Varadkar’s numbers after the election it can feasibly match and maybe overtake them with the support of Labour, the Social Democrats, the Greens and a few Independents. Suddenly the prospect of power doesn’t seem quite so remote.

Martin wants to have an election at a time when he stands the best chance of winning it

But to do that, Martin needs a non-Brexit election.

What should Fine Gael make of all this? Varadkar said in Brussels that he has been saying he didn’t want an election for months. Pull the other one, Taoiseach. He toyed with an autumn election for the very good reason that he figured that the ground might not be as propitious next year. But it’s not a bad consolation prize, really – he gets to stay in government for another year. Which is the point of the whole exercise, if you think about it.

There could, of course, still be an election next year. If Brexit is settled – by a British ratification, or suspension of article 50, or a referendum – then Martin’s rationale disappears. Given the general sense that anything could happen in the realm of Brexitania, you’d be foolish to rule anything out. But for now at least, it’s off the cards.

So for another year, Martin and Varadkar will continue their wary, delicate, deliberate dance – knowing that ultimately one of them will win the inevitable contest, and one of them will lose.