Pat Leahy: Be wary when betting on the formation of the next government

There are two groups who seem most certain of Sinn Féin's coming ascendancy

Mary Lou McDonald: many believe  she will be the Taoiseach in the next government. Photograph: Gettty Images

Mary Lou McDonald: many believe she will be the Taoiseach in the next government. Photograph: Gettty Images

I am not by habit a gambling man. But even if I was, I would be wary about betting on the next general election. Although there is a widespread assumption in political circles and elsewhere that Sinn Féin will be the largest party and lead the next government, there are reasons to doubt the certitude of many of the current predictions.

Just as you could hardly meet anyone in Leinster House who doesn’t believe that Sinn Féin will lead the next government, so media observers seem to be similarly united in their analysis: it’s Mary Lou for Taoiseach, lads.

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