As the portents grow more ominous for a rerun of the Drumcree crisis, signals are being sent of possible shiftings in the sands of British policy on the North. Dr Mo Mowlam has made it clear she does not intend to see the talks process drag on indefinitely. Sinn Fein is to be given one more meeting to clarify conditions in which it would be allowed to enter. And sources in London suggest that the Prime Minister is resolved to explore alternative initiatives if the talks fail.
The talks are not dead. They can make some progress even as matters stand. But it will be virtually impossible to keep life in them indefinitely unless firstly, Sinn Fein can deliver the IRA ceasefire which must predate its own entry and, secondly, unless the mainstream unionists can be kept within the process if Sinn Fein steps in. Even if both of these objectives were to be fulfilled, many analysts believe the possibility of the parties reaching an agreed and workable solution must be remote. In this scenario, according to this line of argument, the British government would wind up the talks and seek to move bilaterally with Dublin to put new structures in place.
Officially, Mr Blair's government is still hopeful that the talks process can move forward. But there is reason to believe that its thinking is at least partially focusing on a post talks landscape. It is growing pessimistic about the ability of Sinn Fein's leaders to secure a definitive end to violence. Sinn Fein's electoral success in both parts of the island appears to vindicate the Provisional strategists who argue that it is possible to secure political advantage while continuing a campaign of violence. If the electorate can be persuaded that a vote for Sinn Fein is a vote for peace, the Provisionals can have it both ways.
Nor should the significance of views from across the Atlantic be missed. The White House has expressed deep concern over IRA actions which, it says, can only "derail the progress of recent weeks", in getting the peace process going again. The New York Times has bluntly rejected Mr Gerry Adams's "crude attempts" to blame either Mr Major or Mr Bruton for the collapse of the IRA ceasefire. If Mr Blair decides that he cannot do business with Sinn Fein, there will be little counter pressure from the White House. Sinn Fein is a busted flush in Washington real politik without a renewed ceasefire.
All of this must present enormous questions for the new Government headed by Mr Bertie Ahern. The incoming administration will be committed to the Downing Street Declaration and the Joint Framework Document in the same degree as its predecessor. Thus any new initiative would have to be acceptable to Dublin. In turn, a very great deal would depend upon how the SDLP might view any such proposals. And the SDLP could not contemplate anything which amounted to no more than an internal settlement.
The British government recognises these realities. Suggestions of possible EastWest structures are being mentioned - as well as cross border arrangements which could be built in tandem with these along with an internal powersharing agreement. If such arrangements were put to referendum and secured, as proposed by Mr John Hume in the context of a negotiated agreement, the possibility of restoring the primacy of politics might emerge. Fanciful notions? Certainly there would be a mammoth task in shaping and selling such proposals. But it is apparent that a reappraisal is going on. Against the gloomy background of a repeat of Drumcree and a talks process which is limping badly, nobody will rush to discourage a bit of lateral thinking.