Noel Whelan: Fine Gael leadership campaign will be an emotional family affair

Party leadership contests tend to be more Kane and Abel than First Among Equals. In seeking to while away the next week before the contest to succeed Enda Kenny begins officially, Fine Gael TDs, Senators and MEPs could do worse than read the early novels of Jeffrey Archer.

Kane and Abel was Archer's second novel, the plot of which echoed the biblical story with the similar name. The protagonists are not actually brothers in Archer's version but they were two men who became arch enemies and then spent most of their lives trying to destroy each other. First Among Equals was Archer's third novel and followed the career of four newly elected Westminster MPs as they each vyed to become prime minister.

Both novels are full of drama, deceit and intrigue. They capture the fickleness of human nature and tell of how ambition can undermine integrity and destroy lifelong friendships. There is much to learn in their texts about surviving political power struggles of the type Fine Gael is likely to experience in the coming weeks.

Party leadership contests above all else are personal in every sense of the word.

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They are personality contests rather than competitions about policy. Those who will compete for the Fine Gael leadership inevitably have similar political views. The differences in policy emphasis, if any, between them will be marginal. The policy debates are designed primarily to illustrate differences in tone and style.

Brand leader

Although the party leader is part-chairman and part-chief executive, above all else he or she is the brand. Assessing which one of the contenders has a policy emphasis and outlook which best chimes with the current public mood will be part of the process, but assessing the leadership styles and personalities will be more important.

TDs, Senators and MEPs also approach party leadership contests on the basis of what the impact will be for their own political career path.

Sitting Fine Gael TDs are the most important block of voters in this contest and above all others they know the first golden rule of politics is “Deputy mind thy seat”. Having survived the heavy losses which the party sustained in February 2016, these incumbents will be reflecting on whether to risk something dramatic with one contender or take the safer and solider option with the other.

In First Among Equals, Archer writes about how the most important days in the career of any politician are those between the fall of one party leader and the rise of another, for if a politician makes a misstep in those delicate days he or she can be cast into political wilderness for a very long time. Avoiding the pitfalls of this intense period is not so much about being sure to back the winning candidate as being sure not to get caught trying to play both sides. One famous story told in the Irish context comes from the period after the fall of Charles Haughey in 1992 when initially it looked like Bertie Ahern would challenge Albert Reynolds for the Fianna Fáil succession. Albert, with typical directness, invited Ahern to resolve the matter by meeting up to compare lists of supporters. When they did so, they found at least one then prominent backbencher had made a firm promise to vote for both of them.

Career politics

The personal career implications for Fine Gael TDs around this contest are of course intensified by the fact the party is currently in government, at least for another while. The party’s senior Ministers will each be assessing their chances of retaining their portfolios or even their places at the Cabinet table. Junior Ministers and backbenchers will be carefully weighing their chances of ministerial advancement. Weighing up who their constituency colleague is likely to support and whether he or she will already be closer in the affections of one contender or another is also a factor. There is little point in backing a leadership candidate who is likely to favour your constituency colleague for promotion over you.

TDs will also want to be onside with the future leader so as to protect their position within their constituencies. This could be crucial when it comes to finalising the ticket for the next election. A TD (or indeed MEP) out of favour with a leader is more likely to see headquarters encourage and assist a stronger running mate. Those Senators with Dáil ambitions must weigh similar considerations. Senators know that leaders can also shape the candidate lists on vocational panels. Taoisigh also have the power to save political careers by including failed Senators among their 11 nominees.

Party leadership campaigns are also intimate and emotional events. They are internal family struggles. Ancient hurts or previous kindnesses will be revisited. Every new slight will be taken personally and the new hurts endure for a very long time. These will be dramatic and difficult weeks for Fine Gael.