No Brexit more likely now than at any point since June 2016
Signs are that the process is going in direction preferred by the Irish Government
No Brexit is the result which suits Ireland most. It has been the fervent but silent objective of Irish diplomats and politicians all along
A soft Brexit with a lengthy extendable transition period and a backstop “unless and until” something better was realised was Ireland’s second preferred outcome from the Brexit process. The withdrawal agreement would have delivered all of that. It was an impressive achievement by our politicians and officials that the provisions of the withdrawal accord so strongly reflected Irish priorities. The defeat of the withdrawal agreement at Westminster on Tuesday ostensibly sets their work at naught.
Looked at it more closely, however, and it now seems likely that Tuesday’s vote, given its scale and timing, could be a very good outcome for Ireland, North and South. The Irish Government issued a press statement expressing its regret at the vote on Tuesday night, but inside it was dancing.