The Government has done well to bring out its White Paper on the Treaty of Nice in timely fashion - two months ahead of the planned referendum on the subject. It provides a factual and informative guide to what is in the treaty and why, without going into heavy advocacy or propaganda. Launching the document yesterday, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, made an impressive case in support of the treaty, based mostly on Ireland's economic and political interests in EU enlargement. He may have his work cut out convincing a potentially truculent electorate to do likewise.
Ireland is the only EU member-state to hold a referendum on ratifying the treaty. The Government has been advised to do so by the Attorney-General. His view was based largely on new conditions attached to enhanced co-operation, which allows groups of member-states smaller than the whole membership to use EU institutions to work more closely together. Political considerations also played their part in the decision.
The vote will be an important test of Ireland's support for the EU's project of deepening integration. This is predicated largely on the need to prepare for enlarging the Union to 27 or more members in coming years, even though a number of the changes made in the treaty - including enhanced co-operation - will take effect irrespective of how quickly or extensively that happens. Thus changes in Commission representation, voting weights and qualified majority voting are all required to enable the EU operate more effectively with a continental-sized membership.
Debate continues on the merits of the outcome at Nice. Convinced integrationists believe it leaned too far towards inter-governmental methods and has reinforced the position of the larger states unsatisfactorily. But such critics have for the most part concluded it is better to accept the treaty in the expectation that it can be improved at the next round of negotiations set for 2004.
The Government is satisfied Ireland's interests have been protected adequately. Political debate on the merits and implications of the proposed treaty changes will intensify as legislation goes through the Oireachtas in preparation for the campaign proper. Voters will have to consider it along with three other referendums, which may boost turnout, but will dilute the attention the treaty deserves.
The political tone of the debate will be affected by changing interests, as Ireland heads towards net contributor status, comes to terms with more intrusive EU economic regulation of the euro and contemplates reduced political representation in a larger EU. But by making such a success of membership this country has become a role model for many of the accession states, with which we have much in common politically and historically. That is a powerful reason for looking favourably on a treaty intended to enable the EU fulfil its continental role more effectively. It is the Government's referendum to lose if it cannot sustain that case with the voters.