President Trump’s decision to visit Ireland in November may have come as a surprise to the Taoiseach but it makes perfect sense. Trump rarely misses an opportunity to play to his core vote, particularly as he builds up a head of steam for a second run at the White House in 2020.
The likelihood is that Trump will be arriving in Ireland in the wake of US midterm elections in which even his Republican leaders expect the president’s party will take a pummelling from the electorate.
A Washington Post poll last week showed a huge 12 point preference among registered voters for Democratic candidates overall; a massive lead.
Trump will use the European trip to focus attention elsewhere rather than on what looks likely to be a “whupping”, as George W Bush once characterised a giant electoral setback.
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Then there is the 2016 election to factor in. Some 107,000 votes in three states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – would have changed the election and given Clinton the presidency with 274 electoral votes.
Throw in Ohio and you have the 2020 roadmap for Trump, who will be ignoring the popular vote again, but he will be focused like a laser on those key battleground states.
It so happens that the ethnic Catholic blue collar vote is critical in all the midwestern states and Pennsylvania. Trump will be speaking to the Irish Catholic core vote when he visits the Emerald Isle.
Such trips are always useful as campaign material, especially as the election looms and his outreach to Ireland will appear in an advertisement or two.
Perfect sense
Trump’s decision makes perfect sense as does the fact that the extensive Irish network in his administration will approve.
Vice-president Mike Pence has long worn his Irish identity on his sleeve and, in concert with chief of staff general John Kelly and director of the office of management and budget Mick Mulvaney, who is also the main go-to guy on Ireland, they form a strong Irish cohort who have the president’s ear.
Then there is the matter of Doonbeg resort and golf course. Trump likes nothing more than to boast about the great deals he has done and Doonbeg, which was in dire difficulty when he bought it, is one deal he loves.
Trump fully expects the trip to Ireland to help him win a second term
Trump has shown he is infinitely more at home in his own properties than on the road in strange hotels. In addition, thankful locals in the Clare village where Trump has given work to 300 locals and is, apparently, a model employer, give him a small but vociferous group of supporters.
There will also be the issue of announcing a US ambassador to Ireland, a position still unfilled two years after Obama left. It gives Trump an opportunity to make some news if he announces his choice.
As for the demonstrators, possibly the more the merrier for a man fixated on being demonised and wronged.
The pictures of left-wing groups gathering in their tens of thousands to protest Trump will only fuel up his supporters back home who will dismiss them as “commie” agitators.
Our telegenic Taoiseach
Let’s not forget a meeting with the telegenic Taoiseach, tall and Hollywood handsome, and Trump’s idea of what a leader should look like.
Trump loves the image more than the reality. He made it plain that his first pick for the Supreme Court judge, Neil Gorsuch, was chosen as much for looking like a judge as actually being one.
Likewise, he was said to hold back on appointing John Bolton to a major position because he hated his moustache. Appearing with Leo will be a bonus for the vanity-obsessed Trump.
Every president since Ronald Reagan has made a trip to Ireland and the country is now on a must-visit list. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama’s visits were memorable for different reasons.
One can only contrast the massive numbers, in the hundreds of thousands, that Obama and Clinton drew on their Irish visits. The contrast with Trump’s reception will be unmistakable. No friendly crowds are likely.
A subplot will be whether Melania will accompany him. She is raising her own battle flag in October by travelling alone to Africa. “This will be my first time travelling to Africa and I am excited to educate myself on the issues facing children throughout the continent, while also learning about its rich culture and history,” a statement read.
In January, Trump reportedly described those same African nations as “shithole countries”. Melania visiting them alone sends its own message. Both the African and Irish trips are loaded with symbolism. As usual, Trump is keeping his eye on the prize in 2020. He fully expects the trip to Ireland to help him win a second term.
Niall O'Dowd is founder of IrishCentral.com, Irish America magazine and Irish Voice newspaper in New York.