Newton Emerson: Impact for Ireland of UK-Australia deal goes far beyond food

The most significant aspect of the new UK-Australia trade deal is not its phasing out of tariffs on goods but its creation of new visas for people.

British and Australian adults up to the age of 35 will acquire a three-year right to work in each other’s countries.

Currently, an age limit of 30 applies in both directions. Australians can only work casually in the United Kingdom for two years, with restrictions on self-employment and professional employment. Britons can work in Australia for one year, extendable to three only by undertaking "specified" jobs in farming, fishing or hospitality in remote locations.

Both countries have a chronic shortage of farm workers, exacerbated by Brexit in the UK's case, with Britons unwilling to perform jobs vacated by EU citizens

All such requirements will reportedly be scrapped and replaced with additional “agriculture visas” for UK and Australian citizens of any age. The time limit on these has yet to be revealed.

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Both countries have a chronic shortage of farm workers, exacerbated by Brexit in the UK’s case, with Britons unwilling to perform jobs vacated by EU citizens.

So agriculture visas have been mocked as futile.

However, Australia already fills 10,000 specified roles a year with UK citizens and believes this can be dramatically increased. Young Britons will travel to the other side of the world for back-breaking agricultural work, just for the adventure. Australians will do menial jobs in the UK for the same reason.

The real question is whether flows of people will increase beyond a trickle of hardy backpackers. The trade deal comes at a fortunate time, albeit for unfortunate reasons. Brexit and Covid-19 have combined to curtail travel opportunities and increase job opportunities in both nations. Britons in particular face a confusing array of new restrictions on working in Europe and beyond, while spurning jobs at home in hospitality, retail and other sectors with vacancy problems as bad as in farming.

Australia has been effectively sealed off to foreign travel since early last year and intends to keep its borders shut, including to UK citizens, until at least the middle of next year. When borders finally open, there could be a heady rush.

Few people using the new visas will see their move as permanent, or be allowed to make it permanent – heavy restrictions on longer stays will continue to apply. The British and Australian immigrations systems are deliberately hostile and labyrinthine.

But compared to one year, three years is a timeframe in which people will inevitably relax and plant deeper roots: starting relationships, starting businesses, qualifying for longer stays, forming a lobby for lighter immigration rules.

This is all separate to new people arriving through any increase in trade. Investors and employees from either country can avail of a wide range of existing visas. Their numbers could increase substantially if the trade deal is later expanded to include services.

The cultural and economic impact of these new arrivals looks certain to dwarf the direct benefits of the deal, projected to be worth one penny a week to UK households. Consider the impact of the J1 Visa on Ireland for a starting comparison.

While Canzuk might not work out as foreseen, it still has enormous potential to change the UK, and the Australian deal looks like a solid step in that process. The knock-on effects for Ireland could be profound.

The underlying context of the Australian deal for many observers, and probably for the British government, is the concept of "Canzuk" – of reaching similar arrangements with Canada and News Zealand to form a new trading bloc.

Canzuk has also been called the Anglosphere. Other terms might include the former dominions, the old commonwealth and, frankly, the white commonwealth.

Nobody gave the British empire a thought when voting for Brexit, contrary to some accusations. But on Canzuk, parts of the Brexit campaign can legitimately be suspected of post-imperial nostalgia. They could be in for a shock if their dreams come to fruition. An exchange of young people between the Canzuk countries would hardly be a Brexiteer meeting of minds. Any British person who thinks their country is still the centre of the universe only needs to meet one Australian to be swiftly corrected. New Zealand will never forget the UK cutting it off to join the European Economic Community. No Brexiteer ever seems to consider how the Anglosphere might upset Canada's Francosphere.

While Canzuk might not work out as foreseen, it still has enormous potential to change the UK, and the Australian deal looks like a solid step in that process.

The knock-on effects for Ireland, north and south of the Border, could be profound.

Ireland has its own deep relationship with the Canzuk countries and the Republic is perfectly placed to be their gateway into the EU. People from Northern Ireland will be able to work in Australia, although the British or Irish passport issue may arise. Australians will be able to work in Northern Ireland – unlike their beef, they will not be turned back at Larne.

As the UK tries to realign itself in the world, culturally and economically, there will be a bewildering array of opportunities for Ireland. But Irish people may also feel increasingly tempted and torn between European and English-speaking worlds, both of which they are clearly a part.