Newton Emerson: Coronavirus has been good for Northern politics

It would be a tasteless thing to celebrate but it must be acknowledged: coronavirus has been good for politics in Northern Ireland.

Arlene Foster and Michelle O'Neill, First Minister and Deputy First Minister, gave a live television address on Tuesday night, directly following UK prime minister Boris Johnson's announcement of new restrictions. It was an unprecedented "address the nation" moment from two leaders who do not even agree what the nation is, reflecting a pointed choice by both to rebuild a united front. They were keen to do so long before the shock of an impending second wave.

Sinn Féin stopped attending Stormont’s regular afternoon coronavirus press briefings after June’s IRA funeral scandal, at the insistence of the other four Executive parties.

Coronavirus briefings can be a powerful way of projecting political leadership, and Foster and O'Neill each need to burnish their authority

O’Neill and Foster reappeared at the podium two weeks ago, seemingly out of the blue, although the move should not have come as a surprise. Foster had set a low bar for forgiveness the week before, saying Sinn Féin only needed to acknowledge the funeral had damaged the Executive’s message. O’Neill duly obliged and the dispute was declared over within hours. The choreography was clear in retrospect, stretching back into the summer.

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Both women have a personal interest in patching up their differences. Coronavirus briefings can be a powerful way of projecting political leadership, and Foster and O’Neill each need to burnish their authority.

The DUP leader has restless backbenches and suffered an ominous revolt over a technical Stormont Bill in July.

The Sinn Féin deputy leader came into her position through an ad-hoc process after the death of Martin McGuinness. She is better at the job than often credited; the problem is that her role within the party does not always make sense to the public, including many Sinn Féin voters.

Beyond these personal concerns are wider party interests in co-operation.

Punishing both

The epidemic has provided regular reminders of the lesson of last year’s Alliance surge: people want Stormont to work; they respond positively to Sinn Féin and the DUP working together; and they will seriously punish both parties at the polls once any deadlock crosses a certain threshold of crisis – a threshold coronavirus undoubtedly meets.

To date, Sinn Féin has been most inclined to forget this. At the start of lockdown in March, it tried to make the nature of the epidemic a constitutional issue. Differences of opinion on lockdown policy within the Executive were leaked, exaggerated and used as further wedge issues, with the DUP accused of deadly right-wing economics as well as deadly loyalty to Britain.

Sinn Féin appeared surprised when this agitation backfired, with every other party standing firm against it. But it changed tack quickly and was fully back on board at Stormont within weeks.

The pattern repeated over the IRA funeral, with Sinn Féin surprised by its political isolation, then moving to put the matter behind it.

Republicans have to overcome an additional difficulty with the innate “partitionism” of strong Stormont leadership. The optics of Foster and O’Neill guiding Northern Ireland through its latest time of trouble have an “Our Wee Country” esprit de corps that must be keeping parts of the republican movement awake at night. Yet they have accepted it must be done.

Behavioural scientists initially thought lockdowns could be sustained for only two to three weeks. Five months later, governments were begging people to leave the house

Conversely, unionists have a built-in ideological gain from a functioning Stormont. But the DUP needs this too – desperately – to look comfortable on its perch. The fiasco of Brexit, for which the party is so obviously responsible, requires it to put in a perfect performance on every other front.

Even unionists who support leaving the EU – probably still the vast majority of DUP voters – will struggle not to blame the party for the sea border and similar uncomfortable consequences.

Soothing balm

As Brexit comes to a head, coronavirus is the balm soothing a fractious Stormont over.

How long can this last? Anyone who predicts disaster in Northern Ireland will be right in the end, but there are reasons to expect an enduring truce.

The DUP’s need for a Brexit distraction is only growing, while Sinn Féin’s growth in the Republic compels it to deliver in the North.

Around the world, public support for firm action against the epidemic continues to confound expectations.

Behavioural scientists initially thought lockdowns could be sustained for only two to three weeks. Five months later, governments were begging people to leave the house. Civil liberties arguments on restrictions appear equally split for and against in media and online debate. However, the split is closer to 90/10 in opinion polls: the cognoscenti have formed an unrepresentative bubble.

If there is one thing the DUP and Sinn Féin are good it, it is seeing through a fashionable consensus to what their supporters really want – which, for now, is Stormont getting its act together against the virus.

A better question is whether this lasts long enough to create a more robust partnership between them.

It is not beyond the bounds of possibility.