ANALYSIS:FG and its leader are very much a work in progress, despite claims of electoral readiness, writes HARRY McGEE
FINE GAEL had two overriding aims for its national conference in Killarney this weekend. The first was to present Enda Kenny as the Taoiseach-in- waiting. The second was to put an ocean of clear blue water between Fine Gael and the Government parties on policy issues and on moral dispensation.
On the face of it, neither presented a complicated task. Party conferences are, to use the sports analogy, set-pieces where everybody has a predefined role and knows what they are doing and saying. The notion of debate or division has long been made redundant by news management and the exigencies of live TV.
That said, it was not at all clear if Fine Gael fully succeeded in all of its aims. There was an unmistakable ramping up of Enda Kenny as leader all weekend. And though he performed well – including a smoothly-delivered leader’s speech – niggling doubts still persist (internally as well as externally) about his wherewithal.
The party floated a three-pronged strategy this weekend to highlight how much it differs from Fianna Fáil, with mixed results. Its health reforms (ie, universal health insurance) are not controversial. Its new messages in finance and employment were also cogent.
Its strategists have invested by far the most energy in the third area – fundamental political reform. But the new policy could not be characterised as an unqualified success. There was more dissent than expected at the political reform session, and there were no standing ovations for the reforms during Kenny’s speech.
Instead, the euphoric applause was reserved for his most potent soundbites. The first on banking: “This country is finished with golden circles and the favoured few.” And on governance: “The focus is on jobs for the people – not jobs for the boys.”
There seems to be far more interest in bringing to book those who bear responsibility for the country’s financial crisis.
On occasion, the conference took on the attributes of an election rally. This is understandable. An election within the next year has become a real possibility, and this instructed the major themes pursued at the conference.
Formulating responses to the country’s economic problems has posed particular difficulties for Fine Gael. The party’s natural instinct is fiscal responsibility. But the danger is its solutions can be seen as too similar to those of Fianna Fáil. Thus there was very definite positioning this weekend away from Government policies.
The first was the adoption of a more populist line on the banks. The party is still adhering to its complicated good bank–bad bank strategy. But it is now saying Anglo Irish Bank should be denationalised and handed over to its creditors when its guarantee expires in September.
Unsurprisingly, the deliberate ploy of a litany of speakers to associate the Government parties with bankers, especially Sean FitzPatrick’s Anglo Irish, was warmly received by the faithful.
The party will oppose Minister for Finance Brian Lenihan’s proposals to take €3 billion out of the economy in next December’s budget. This is also a new departure.
In last year’s Budget, Fine Gael supported the savings of €4 billion, but differed in the detail. Now the party proposes cuts of €2 billion, all from current spending.
In contrast, the Coalition will seek only €1 billion from current expenditure, with the remaining €2 billion from the capital side.
The distinction is important. The thrust of Fine Gael’s argument is that less emphasis should be placed on cuts and more on job creation. The party claims it can create and retain 140,000 jobs through a modernisation of infrastructure and utilities, and through the use of the welfare system to create internships and placements.
But some of these plans are already Government policies. Moreover, the promise to fund the ambitious €18 billion “New Era” project without recourse to public borrowing also seems optimistic.
There are flaws in its jobs policies but the Opposition proposals seem more advanced than the Government’s strategy, which is poorly co-ordinated.
The “New Politics” strand of the conference was well hyped but was a little lacklustre. Two of the planks of the Kenny project – the abolition of the Seanad and a smaller Dáil – remain. But Phil Hogan disclosed that the list system will not form part of the document that will be published today, perhaps a sign of growing nervousness about its impact.
And what of Enda Kenny? During the course of his speech he referred back to the promise he made in 2002, shortly after becoming leader, that he would “electrify the party”.
At times the wattage has been disappointingly low. But if some of his predecessors burned brighter, they were also of the incandescent variety. In contrast, Kenny’s leadership has been of a lower-energy, but markedly longer-life, variety.
What the conference dispelled were any doubts over him leading the party into the next election. And in part, he can thank the ghost at the Killarney conference; for George Lee’s name was not uttered once publicly in Killarney.
In February, Lee’s departure could have ended Kenny’s reign. But before the Government parties could make any capital of Fine Gael’s implosion, they themselves were hit by a series of small scandals and resignations that back-footed them. The Lee affair is now almost forgotten.
In 2002, strategist Frank Flannery described Kenny as a work in progress. Eight years later, he has confounded his critics by surviving in situ, against all odds and predictions. But despite his and his party’s claims of electoral readiness, the evidence is that both remain very much a work in progress.