"It is a move from covert to overt dictatorship". This apt characterisation of Mr Slobodan Milosevic's latest repressive moves against critical media in Serbia came from a human rights observer yesterday. He joined many international voices condemning the closure of the independent broadcasting station Studio B, the victimisation of an independent newspaper and the arrest of over 20 journalists. The moves come following a significant build-up of opposition protests against the Milosevic regime, which have managed to unite previously hostile factions of his opponents.
It is one of the paradoxes of contemporary Serbia that Milosevic's dictatorial rule has co-existed with a lively movement of opposition against him, including its own media, especially in the capital Belgrade. In recent months a radical youth movement, Otpor, has emerged, using flamboyant methods of protest against Milosevic's supporters. Rallies of 100,000 people have been held and these latest moves seem sure to fan the flames of opposition further. Milosevic has been able to allow the opposition such leeway because of its notoriously factional character.
There has been a rooted inability among his opponents to unite against him in a sustainable and credible fashion. Most of them have been concentrated in Belgrade. The most powerful man concerned, Mr Vuk Drascovic, leader of the Serbian Renewal Movement, is popular precisely because he shares many of the Serb nationalist positions that Milosevic has exploited so opportunistically over his career. Mr Drascovic, a mercurial and highly egotistical figure, owns the building where the closed broadcasting station is based. He has now appeared together with Mr Zoran Djindjic, leader of the Democratic Party, at several rallies.
This raises the prospect that a real opposition movement could threaten Milosevic's hold on power in general elections later this year. It would be fuelled by collapsing support among a population exhausted by wars and sanctions and more and more anxious to escape such entrapments - including in provincial and rural Serbia, which up to now have been the regime's power base. The timing and ruthlessness of these moves to silence the opposition are clearly related to its growing strength.
Among the many voices raised against them was that of the President of Montenegro, Serbia's sole partner in the rump Yugoslav federation, who condemned the closures and arrests. There has been a marked build-up of tension between the two republics as Montenegro strives to assert an autonomy which Milosevic condemns as separatist. It would be absolutely in character for him to mobilise against Montenegro now as a means of diverting attention from his crumbling support at home. Events could therefore move fast on the heels of such a public closure of the broadcasting station by heavily armed special forces. A statement justified it because the station was said to have called for the violent overthrow of legitimate authorities, which the opposition denies as a fraudulent claim. But these events may signify the approach of a final struggle to rid Serbia of such a destructive leader.