Mr Slobodan Milosevic has been dealt another blow to his control and manipulation of events in what remains of the Yugoslav federation by the defeat of his favoured candidate in the Montenegrin elections, Mr Momir Bulatovic. Mr Milo Djukanovic, who soundly defeated Mr Bulatovic, is committed to democratise Yugoslavia and make common cause with the pro-European parties in the Serbian opposition. But, in what looks increasingly like an attempt to head off and divert such a development, Mr Milosevic is stoking up the conflict in Kosovo with the Albanian nationalists advocating independence there. Precisely because he is under such pressure from Montenegro and from Serbian opponents, Mr Milosevic's strategy in Kosovo is all the more dangerous. The Montenegrin result cuts right across it. Mr Djukanovic is likely to form a coalition with smaller Albanian parties, putting his opponents into opposition. He supports international mediation in Albania and has so far held out against proponents of Montenegrin independence, arguing that his people's interests are better served through a transformation of Yugoslavia. Mr Milosevic now has to decide how to respond. The election result makes it difficult to change the Yugoslav constitution so as to guarantee him a second term in office. This would not meet with approval from the upper house of the federal assembly, in which Serbia and Montenegro are equally represented, despite their great difference in population. If he tries to keep Mr Bulatovic on as federal prime minister, despite this result, Mr Milosevic will only create more trouble for himself.
The young Montenegrin victor was previously in the ruling Socialist party and just as enthusiastic a Serbian nationalist as Mr Milosevic. But, in a remarkable piece of self-criticism, he declared the need to "sober up and awaken from our legends and dreams" and "to turn the criticism directed against us on to ourselves". He has become convinced of the need to modernise, Europeanise and democratise Yugoslavia and will now proceed to carry out this programme in Montenegro. Given the strong performance of anti-Milosevic parties in Serbian local elections and the shift from the most hardline groups in the breakaway Serbian entity in Bosnia it can be seen that there is a real prospect of political competition.
But the conflict in Kosovo threatens to stifle such political progress. In recent days there are alarming reports that thousands have been fleeing into Albania and that many separatist guerrillas have been killed in battle with Serb police and troops. So far the Albanian government has resisted domestic pressures to intervene in support of independence for Kosovo.
They are as mindful of the potentially destabilising consequences of such a development as their neighbours in Greece, the former Yugoslav Republic of Montenegro and Bulgaria, all of which are afraid of spreading conflict into which they could be drawn. Unfortunately, their alarmist warnings are mostly true, which is why NATO troops are being prepared for a possible intervention, reportedly to protect existing borders and contain the conflict.