The sheer speed of military change in Afghanistan continues to outpace the search for a legitimate post-Taliban administration. Tensions deepened over the weekend between the Northern Alliance forces which have taken Kabul and those who say the new government must include all factions and ethnic groups. United Nations officials had some success in arranging a meeting to agree on that this week, although there is still a lot of work to be done to bring the different groups together. Military action within Afghanistan and by the US-led international coalition continues apace; but the euphoria over their dramatic successes last week is giving way to fear about what will happen next. Humanitarian aid is difficult indeed to deliver with the urgency required amid such uncertainty.
The killing of Osama bin Laden's deputy, Mohammed Ataf, last week and continued close fighting near Kandahar demonstrate how closely engaged the al-Qaeda leader has become in the fighting. Clearly his assailants hope that if they capture the city (the main Taliban stronghold) it will be easier to pursue him and his organisation, especially if there are substantial defections. Military events are moving so fast that they have outstripped not only the political preparedness but the United Nations mandating necessary for foreign troops to become involved directly in Afghanistan. US, British and French troops are reported to be in action there alongside Northern Alliance forces; but this must be endorsed rapidly through the UN if it is to carry international legitimacy.
The difficulties emerging over the precise configuration of a post-Taliban government are more concerned with operational politics than basic policy. There is little evidence that the Northern Alliance aspires to run the country, even though its rapid victories gives it a stronger role in determining who will do so. The problem will be finding acceptable partners from the Pashtun community, the predominant ethnic group in the south of Afghanistan. Even Pakistan accepts there must be a broad-based government, however much it dislikes the Northern Alliance. The United Nations and the United States have converged on the necessity to construct such a coalition, as have other members of the UN Security Council. There is also an emerging consensus on humanitarian aid and on the need for a UN-mandated international force.
The central political task now is to ensure diplomatic and political progress towards finding a new government for Afghanistan catches up urgently with military action. If this is not done there is an obvious danger that the country could disintegrate, drawing in neighbouring states in a highly dangerous spiral of instability. That this potential danger is widely recognised is no certain guarantee that sufficient action will be taken to head it off. But it is understood and many of those involved are working together to prevent it happening. Political leaders and commentators who spoke of the likelihood of a prolonged war have been somewhat disarmed by the speed of military events. But they did foresee the difficulties involved in finding a political settlement.