Shades of the Garvaghy climb down by the RUG must inevitably colour reactions to last night's decision - in the circumstances, the only right one to take - by the Northern Secretary to prevent the Apprentice Boys from marching on the walls overlooking the Bogside in Derry on Saturday. If the line is held, then a salutary contribution may be made to preserving the peace in the North. But that cannot be taken for granted. Sir Patrick Mayhew was not over optimistic about the ability of the security authorities to enforce the order if any large number of Apprentice Boys or members of associated organisations decide to challenge it.
The decision is therefore a gamble, not only in the sense that it may not be possible to deliver the promised restriction, but that any weakening of resolve in the face of Orange pressure will have the gravest possible consequences for politics in the North. The failure to stop the marchers from forcing their way through the Garvaghy Road - in part, perhaps, because some RUC members were perceived to be on the point of refusing to obey orders - transformed the nationalist perspective and radicalised it. Any repetition of that fiasco is bound to entrench alienation much more deeply and put in question the slim remaining chances of reviving the peace process when the traditional marching season ends.
Two days remain for a negotiated compromise to be found, allowing the partial ban on the march to be rescinded. This must still be the best and most hoped for course. The meetings under the chairmanship of Mr John Hume between the leadership of the Apprentice Boys and the Bogside Residents' Group (BRG) and other efforts to mediate have so far failed to produce agreement, but they have shown that a good deal of common sense and realism exists on both sides. Unfortunately, common sense and realism tend to count for little when unreconcilable agendas are put forward at the same time.
One of the BRG's basic demands was that any agreement involving local nationalist consent should cover not only the Derry march but provocative marches by the Apprentice Boys all over the North. In the light of experience, its reasons were not difficult to understand, and the issue of disputed marches undeniably lies at the core of the question of parity of esteem. But a local victory on consent for Derry alone, which seemed within grasp, would do more to achieve this fundamental principle than holding out for it universally at a time of dangerous sensitivities. What the North needs above all is an example of good sense in practice, and a demonstration that talking can produce concrete results.
The alternative is a perpetuation of the bitterness, illogicality and sheer evil unleashed at Drumcree. That is not the objective of the BRG negotiators or the wider grouping of organisations opposed to provocative loyalist marches. Nor, it should be acknowledged, is it the aim of the Apprentice Boys' leaders who have shown a commendable flexibility in negotiating that should be an example to some other unionists. The right of their organisation to honour its traditions, within the bounds of respect for others, has been questioned by no one.
But, as so often happens in the North, forces rooted in history can negate the best intentions of people looking for compromise and provide rich opportunities for those who prefer polarisation and extremist solutions. Derry this weekend is a testing ground in every sense for both communities.