Letters

Counting the cost of a united Ireland

The Belfast Agreement already enshrines a UK commitment to hold and respect the outcome of a referendum, which is not linked to any agreement on debt and pensions

Letters to the Editor. Illustration: Paul Scott
The Irish Times - Letters to the Editor.
Fri Jun 07 2024 - 00:14

Sir, – Newton Emerson mischaracterises my evidence to the Oireachtas Committee on the Belfast Agreement when he states that I argued that public sector workers, or those on benefits in Northern Ireland would receive lower benefits and public-sector wages for 15 years, following Irish unity (“Some claims about the cost of a united Ireland don’t stack up”, Opinion & Analysis, May 30th). He does accurately record that the recently published estimate of the costs of doing so were significantly overstated. Average pre-tax public sector salaries are currently 48 per cent higher in the Republic compared to Northern Ireland. In my evidence I stated that it was politically very likely that every public sector worker, pensioner and welfare recipient in Northern Ireland would receive a real increase in year one of a united Ireland. That would, of course, include compensation for any change in taxes and pension contributions (which would have no real cost as the “increase” would immediately return to the exchequer). I do not think a 48 per cent pay rise is likely in one move – the biggest cost of living difference is not in fact taxes, as stated by Newton Emerson, it is housing, and housing costs will not suddenly increase by 48 per cent. I said that, as an example, harmonising real take home wages over 15 years, which would be twice the speed of Germany, would cost less than €150 million in year one. In my projections for the Oireachtas, I included the cost of immediately equalising state pensions, at approximately €400 million per annum. Allowing for additional public spending of twice these amounts, to cover other much needed investment in public services, or faster convergence would add €1 billion per annum to public expenditure over current expenditure levels, a level readily affordable by a new united Ireland.

Newton Emerson states that the most pertinent comparative example to Irish unity negotiations are those that preceded the 2014 Scottish referendum. The context there was very different. The Scottish government had to negotiate to get permission to hold a referendum, and to get UK approval they agreed to pay a UK levy towards debt and pension costs. The Belfast Agreement already enshrines a UK commitment to hold and respect the outcome of a referendum, which is not linked to any agreement on debt and pensions. – Yours, etc,

Prof JOHN DOYLE,

Dublin City University,

READ MORE

Dublin 16.