THE EARTHQUAKE that shook the Dail establishment last June continues to reshape the political landscape with the Labour Party now holding a commanding nine-point lead over both Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, according to the latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll. As the cost of the banking rescue rises and with an unpopular December Budget in the offing, the party looks well-placed to play a dominant role in the next government.
Fine Gael will be seriously concerned by its three-point loss of support during the summer months. Disaffection within its parliamentary party and an unsuccessful challenge to the leadership of Enda Kenny probably accounted for much of the slippage. But a tactical mistake, early this week, in refusing to facilitate Government Ministers on official business abroad may have compounded the party’s difficulties.
Fianna Fáil can take a measure of comfort from the figures, on the basis that the prognosis was much worse for the party this time last year. Excluding “don’t knows” in the traditional fashion, support for Fianna Fáil has increased by four points since last September. In the same period, support for Fine Gael fell by nine points, while the Labour Party added eleven points. A general election may not reflect this extraordinary volatility, because local organisations and candidate profiles will play important roles, but it clearly reflects voter disillusionment with what were the major parties and a desire for fundamental change.
Even as Fianna Fáil recovered a modicum of ground during the summer months, the level of public dissatisfaction with the Government remained at83 per cent. Brian Cowen’s personal satisfaction rating edged up marginally as did Enda Kenny’s. Eamon Gilmore continued to lead the political fashion parade by the proverbial mile, while satisfaction levels for Gerry Adams and John Gormley faded somewhat. Despite these vicissitudes, all party leaders attracted majority support within their own organisations.
Growth in support for the Labour Party has been unprecedented and occurred this year at the expense of all other parties. It now attracts four out of ten urban voters and is totally dominant in Dublin. It leads Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael in Leinster and Munster, but trails both parties in Connacht/Ulster. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael are running neck-and-neck in Dublin, with Fianna Fáil ahead of its traditional rival in Leinster and Munster while taking a back seat in Connacht/Ulster.
Support for Sinn Féin and the Green Party has declined.
Life is about to become much more difficult for the Labour Party.
Eamon Gilmore has trumpeted his intention to lead the next government at the head of the largest Dáil party. Because of that, a populist approach to contentious issues will no longer serve and he will come under intense pressure to specify the policies he intends to pursue in government. Fine Gael’s discomfiture over the threat of being relegated to a supporting position is already evident with party spokesmen accusing Labour of preparing to do a deal with Fianna Fail.