Kosovo Choices

As NATO steps up its preparations for military intervention, reports are emerging from Kosovo which bring the previous Balkan…

As NATO steps up its preparations for military intervention, reports are emerging from Kosovo which bring the previous Balkan wars to mind. Mobile medical teams from the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF) have found large numbers of women and children hiding in the forests and suffering from severe respiratory and gastric infections.

UNICEF has described the scene as the worst its observers have witnessed in Kosovo. The ethnic Albanian groups in the forests around the town of Novo Selo are believed to number several thousand and their plight is a direct result of the offensive launched in the region on the orders of Yugoslav president Mr Slobodan Milosevic.

The terrorist operations launched by the Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA) have undoubtedly warranted a response from Yugoslavia. The nature and the extent of that military response has, however, been completely out of proportion to the threat posed by the ethnic Albanian separatists.

It is difficult not to form the impression that Yugoslavia's actions have been designed not so much to pacify an unruly region as to restore some political credibility among Serbs for Mr Milosevic.

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It should be remembered that last year Belgrade was brought to a standstill on many occasions by Serbs and people from other ethnic groups who demanded Mr Milosevic's resignation as president of Serbia after his supporters had rigged local elections. Mr Milosevic's response was to outfox his opponents, become federal president and endow a previously ceremonial post with real power. If there is anything that will unite Serbs behind almost any leader it is conflict in Kosovo, a region they hold in almost sacred regard.

The resolution of the Security Council of the United Nations on Wednesday calling for an immediate ceasefire in the region has been interpreted in different ways. Passed almost unanimously - China abstained - the resolution did not include a specific threat of military force, neither did it set a deadline for compliance. It was, however, adopted under the section of the UN charter which allows military action to be taken to enforce compliance.

It is significant that Serbia's traditional ally, Russia, voted in favour of the resolution and although Moscow is still resolutely opposed to the use of either force or economic sanctions against Belgrade for the moment, it has given a clear message to Mr Milosevic that he should curb his actions immediately.

It is significant too that UNICEF and the United Nations High Commission for Refugees (UNHCR), the main UN agencies on the ground in Kosovo, have called for a political rather than military solution in the disputed region.

Statements from the NATO secretary general, Mr Javier Solana, and from representatives of NATO countries in the Security Council which have stressed that military preparations for intervention are under way may serve to increase the pressure on Mr Milosevic to end his forces' operations against ethnic Albanians.

NATO's statement should, therefore, be welcomed as an additional tool in the search for a peaceful political settlement to the Kosovo problem rather than as a signal of impending military intervention.

If the judgment of those on the ground is to be accepted, the time for military action may be approaching but has not yet arrived.