The outcome everyone was trying to avoid has come to pass in Italy an election without political reform and in the middle of the European Union presidency. President Scalfaro had little option but to call it after the prolonged impasse in negotiations over the formation of a government by the prime minister designate, Mr Antonio Maccanico, and despite the damage that may be done to Italy's international standing as an important political player.
On this occasion the argument so often adduced, that despite the rapid turnover of governments this is the 54th since the second World War the quality of Italian administration will see it through, is much harder to sustain. Undoubtedly the heads of government departments, including most notably for Italy's EU partners, the senior officials in its foreign ministry and prime minister's office, are well able to steer its affairs in keeping with the EU agenda. But in the absence of a government confident of parliamentary support or undiverted by the need to seek re election, it seems inevitable that sharp and bold political judgment will be absent.
The US Assistant Secretary of State, Mr Richard Holbrooke, has for example accused EU leaders, probably unfairly, of "sleeping through" the recent crisis between Greece and Turkey in the Aegean. But the Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy requires active political engagement with such crises as they arise and elections are bound to divert attention from this. This adds point to the need for an overhaul of the foreign policy and a strengthening of the presidency procedures during the Inter Governmental Conference to be inaugurated under Italian chairmanship in Turin next month.
It is not clear from President Scalfaro's statement last night whether the outgoing prime minister, Mr Dini, is to operate strictly in a caretaker capacity, with minimal political room to manoeuvre, or whether he will be able to conduct public affairs more freely. By the time elections are held in April and a new government put together, Mr Dini may be able to see the EU presidency through. It is interesting to note that only one of the four large states that have successively had the job Germany, France, Spain and now Italy, have managed to avoid having an election in the middle of it, and that by a whisker, as the Spaniards candidly acknowledge. Ireland becomes the next state to take on the responsibility in July.
Clearly domestic failures to agree on political reform, and impossible demands on a new administration made by Mr Silvio Berlusconi, have outweighed considerations of EU continuity and political effectiveness unlike in Spain, where Mr Gonzalez held off pressure for early voting and presided over a very successful presidency.