Can we dare to hope that the next stage of the national debate on abortion may be conducted in a more tolerant and conciliatory way than has been the case in the past? We know that more discussion is on the way. The Government's inter-departmental working group on abortion has taken submissions from more than 2,000 groups and individuals. A green paper promised originally for June of this year has been postponed. It now seems likely to be published in the spring of next year.
There is a suspicion that the Government is deliberately procrastinating on the issue, hoping that like other difficult problems it will go away. Liz McManus, Democratic Left's spokeswoman on health, probably spoke for many people when she said earlier this year: "My expectation is that political fudge, fright and failure will prevail. Until the next crisis."
But there are also hopeful signs of a growing willingness to discuss the issue in a calm and reasonable way, while still recognising that this is an issue which evokes the most profound emotions on both sides. A conference held in Trinity last weekend entitled "Voices of Reason" highlighted recent research into the reality of women's experience of abortion in Ireland, North and South.
It followed an earlier gathering at UCD in September on the theme "Five Thousand Too Many". The title referred to the number of women who travel to Britain every year from this State to have their pregnancies terminated. There has been a steady increase in the statistics of women giving addresses in Ireland in recent years.
This is the major reason for the growing public willingness to discuss the issue, at least in terms of how the numbers seeking abortions in Britain can be reduced. Church leaders, medical practitioners, social workers accept that, like it or not, these are Irish abortions, even if the actual medical procedures are performed in clinics across the water. They put great emphasis on the need for more and better sex education, the availability of counselling and easier access to contraception.
They recognise that legislation relating to travel and information appears to have made the journey to Britain easier for most women, but that it remains an Irish solution to an Irish problem which is not only hypocritical, but socially discriminatory.
Inevitably, the women who have most difficulty getting an abortion are those who are less well off, though counsellors insist that a woman who cannot cope with a crisis pregnancy will go to a moneylender if all else fails. This also means that such women are likely to have an abortion at a later stage in their pregnancy and that they will often do without the follow-up medical care which they may need.
These matters do concern a growing number of doctors and others who deal with women facing crisis pregnancy. The medical profession, particularly those institutions which represent gynaecologists and obstetricians, have been extremely cautious about making official submissions to the Government's working party.
Partly this has been attributed to the fact that members hold views which are "poles apart". But individual consultants have spoken out, to the effect that pregnancies are terminated in this State on medical grounds, even if these procedures are not officially admitted to be abortions.
Even more important in indicating a change of climate within the medical profession was the submission which the Adelaide Hospital Society made earlier this year to the Government's working party.
Describing itself as a "Christian charitable organisation committed to the sanctity of human life and the dignity of the person", the Adelaide argues for a comprehensive programme of care for women facing crisis pregnancies, including the introduction of legislation in line with the legal decisions handed down in the X and C cases. The submission also proposes the setting up of clinics that would provide counselling and perform terminations within the first eight weeks of gestation. In other words we now have, for the first time, a hospital which has indicated that it would be prepared to perform abortions in strictly controlled circumstances. The fact that the leaders of the main Protestant churches have also spoken of the need for legislation to provide for abortion in strictly defined cases adds strength to the Adelaide's proposals, given the hospital's Protestant ethos.
I don't want to make too much of all this. Liberal attitudes on this issue have not suddenly broken out all over. Recent opinion polls show an increase in support for a new referendum on abortion. Youth Defence has forecast a campaign of "civil unrest" if there is any attempt to change the law.
In yesterday's Irish Times a monk from Glenstal Abbey wrote that he had destroyed a photograph of himself taken with Mary Robinson, because of her recently expressed view that abortion should be available in Ireland "in limited circumstances".
But, against this, opinion polls taken in the wake of the C case last year showed that over 70 per cent of those questioned were prepared to accept that abortion should be introduced in Ireland to deal with particularly difficult cases.
The fact that Mrs Robinson's views have not provoked more angry reaction is in itself interesting, and should encourage those campaigning for change. The truth probably is that most Irish people probably disapprove of abortion but, when faced with the human reality of a young girl pregnant as a result of rape, do not think that she should be forced to carry the pregnancy to term. We need to learn from doctors and other professionals dealing with the problems presented by crisis pregnancies. But, even more, we need to hear the human stories that lie behind the abstract moral arguments about abortion. Research commissioned by the Government's working party shows that women are more willing to talk about their experiences to partners, friends, members of their immediate family. When we hear these stories the demand for change will become irresistible.