IN POLITICS a good start makes a lot of difference. It allows political leaders to set the agenda, frame events and convince supporters and citizens they can rule effectively. On these counts President Barack Obama must be given high marks for his first 100 days in office. Rarely has any US president confronted such a range and depth of issues so immediately after taking office, or shown such strong levels of voter satisfaction at this stage of his first term, whether on the economy, foreign policy, health or national security.
While this is no guarantee of success over the next 900 days, it gives a real momentum and generates confidence at home and abroad that he can deliver on his policies.
Mr Obama is adept at timing and pacing, other desirable political arts. He demonstrated this talent during the campaign against John McCain when he recognised the importance of the developing economic crisis last September and responded more capably to it than his opponent. That has been the most pressing and intense issue of his first 100 days, as he bailed out the banking system, stimulated the economy and confronted the rapidly growing unemployment crisis. Although these policies have been criticised and cannot yet be judged they show a determination to use public power in quite a new fashion, following years in which state-market relations were so tilted the other way.
After such an impressive start, pacing the next three years is now the central challenge of his presidency. Any president soon discovers the limitations as well as the political potential of the office. Having set out and initiated his programme Mr Obama becomes increasingly dependent on Congress to deliver it legislatively and on circumstances out of his control to determine its success. Increasingly it becomes a reactive, dependent role rather than a completely autonomous one. Mr Obama is exceptionally fortunate to have had George Bush as his predecessor, from whom Americans and non-Americans alike want to put a distance. He has paced that sentiment well by sharply differentiating and reorienting his domestic and foreign policies but now has full responsibility for them.
Whether on health reform, job creation, Guantánamo and torture or on his accessible yet reasoned style of political argument, Mr Obama has successfully caught the US public mood and carried opinion with him. As a result his Republican opponents are nonplussed and in disarray, as shown by Arlen Specter’s defection to the Democrats yesterday, which could give the Democrats a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. They must await the working out of Mr Obama’s policies, hoping that failures will revive their credibility.
Internationally Mr Obama has played well to an expectant world. Much of this work has been symbolic, conveying respect to countries and cultures previously disparaged by the Bush administration. His foreign policy is now becoming more substantive, notably on Afghanistan and Pakistan, and in his meetings with European and Latin American leaders. He must now link that goodwill to his pursuit of US interests.