Fintan O'Toole: Ireland has successfully shifted Brexit odds in its favour

In this high-stakes game, the Republic has a three-in-four chance of winning

How much risk are the no-dealers willing to bear? On a personal level, none at all. Jacob Rees-Mogg has moved hedge funds to Dublin and advises his clients on how to “Brexit-proof” their investments. Nigel Farage admitted  that his two children and his wife have German passports and will remain entitled to  EU citizenship. Photograph: Getty Images

How much risk are the no-dealers willing to bear? On a personal level, none at all. Jacob Rees-Mogg has moved hedge funds to Dublin and advises his clients on how to “Brexit-proof” their investments. Nigel Farage admitted that his two children and his wife have German passports and will remain entitled to EU citizenship. Photograph: Getty Images

What it comes down to, 31 days before March 29th, is risk. We are entering the high altitudes of history-making, the exposed zones where everyone has to face the hard question: what risks are you really prepared to take?

Risks are not facts; they are guesses – more or less educated – about unknown consequences. The fate of nations should not come down to the gambler’s instinct, but Brexit has taken us all to the bookies. And since we have to put our money down, mine is still on the Irish horse.

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