How long before we can expect to see members of Sinn Fein sitting around the cabinet table, not just in Northern Ireland but in this State? The question is raised by a rather surprising source. In an interview published in the Irish News last Friday, John Bruton said that he would consider negotiating with Sinn Fein for the party's support in the Dail for a coalition government.
The Fine Gael leader told Michael O'Toole: "Once they have embarked on a process of decommissioning that is credible, I see absolutely no reason why, if there is policy compatibility, we couldn't do business with Sinn Fein."
Mr Bruton added that, once the decommissioning issue was resolved, he would expect the ban on Fine Gael councillors entering voting pacts with Sinn Fein to be dropped.
He also urged unionists to implement the Belfast Agreement in full and argued that it was time for the British government to publish a detailed timetable for demilitarisation in Northern Ireland.
The idea of any partnership between Fine Gael and Sinn Fein seems, at this point in time, rather remote. It's no secret that Mr Bruton's handling of the peace process during his time as Taoiseach caused widespread dismay not only in the republican movement but among the broader nationalist community in Northern Ireland.
Quite a few people thought it contributed to the breakdown of the first ceasefire.
Times change. Mr Bruton, like the other political leaders in this State, has been looking at Sinn Fein's success in last month's elections. In the local elections the party's share of the vote rose by 1.4 points to 3.5 per cent since the last local poll in 1991.
In the same period, the Progressive Democrats dropped from 5 per cent to 2.7 per cent. The Labour Party, despite the merger with Democratic Left, held steady at 10.6 per cent but did not, as it had hoped, increase its share of the vote.
Sinn Fein did particularly well in inner city areas and, not surprisingly, in Border constituencies.
The party has effectively rebutted the charge that it is purely a Northern party with no appeal in this State. Many commentators (including myself) assumed that it would be damaged by distressing scenes of the families of the "disappeared" waiting, in vain, for the bodies of their loved ones to be returned to them. That didn't happen.
Whatever the reasons, people accepted that this was a genuine gesture by the IRA which went tragically wrong, rather than an act designed to add to the families' grief.
Sinn Fein demonstrated its political ability to organise a strong grassroots campaign of the kind which has already been so successful in the North, mobilising those who do not usually bother to go out and vote.
It did particularly well in areas with serious social problems - drugs, unemployment, high crime rates.
This will come as no surprise to anyone who has seen Gerry Adams out on the campaign trail in places like Sherriff Street and his obvious anger at some of the living conditions which he saw there.
I'M TOLD by more expert poll-watchers than myself that Sinn Fein could be poised to take four or five Dail seats in the next election, provided it manages to resolve the decommissioning issue. That is why Mr Bruton is prepared to make overtures to the party publicly, through the pages of the Irish News.
No doubt Bertie Ahern has already expressed the same interest in private, while also making it clear that if Mr Adams and his colleagues wish to become serious players in the politics of this State, then Sinn Fein must find a way of putting its past firmly behind it.
All this is some way down the road. At the moment the problem of decommissioning continues to squat malignly in the middle of the peace road. We have yet to see whether the political parties, with the help of George Mitchell, will be able to overcome it once and for all.
Mr Adams claims that there has been serious slippage in the republican community for the Belfast Agreement and a growing suspicion that unionists will never sit down in an executive with Sinn Fein. That seems unduly pessimistic. It was never on the cards that David Trimble would be able to deliver his party, or his community, during the heightened tensions of the marching season.
John Hume has expressed the view, with his customary practical optimism, that it should be easier to discuss the outstanding obstacles to progress in a calm and civilised way in the rather cooler political atmosphere of September.
It would help greatly if unionists could be helped to see not only how far the republican movement has moved but the serious political reasons why these changes have taken place.
Last week's brief statement by the IRA has been dismissed as "unhelpful" because it ruled out decommissioning. As always the message seemed deliberately targeted at different audiences. The IRA also underlined "our definitive commitment" to the success of the peace process and to the search for a durable settlement.
MR ADAMS and his close colleagues have proved themselves to be skilful politicians. They are impatient to get their hands on the levers of power, an ambition which should not shock nor surprise us. It is what politics is about, gaining power democratically to effect change.
The Sinn Fein leadership will be working hard in the coming weeks, probably harder than many of the other politicians involved. It needs to rally its own grassroots and to renew their confidence that the Belfast Agreement will be implemented and will deliver progress.
However, it will also have to look again at Mr Trimble's difficulties to consider how it can best persuade the unionist community that the conflict is over and that Mr Trimble and his colleagues should move forward.
Mr Bruton's interview underlines dramatically how much is at stake for Sinn Fein in the next few weeks. It should give some reassurance to unionists that the Fine Gael leader, who has not been noted in the past for his sympathy for Sinn Fein, seems to have altered his view of the party.
Could this be the beginning of the end of Civil War politics in both parts of the island?