Speculation about the Labour Party joining Fianna Fáil in government after the election has become a kind of mantra for some of our political commentators who, however, are remarkably shy about telling the public just how such an event could come about, writes Garret FitzGerald
I can see why Fianna Fáil would want to sell this idea to the electorate. The nightmare scenario for that party is that, with an almost certain loss of a number of its seats, as well as some PD losses, some voters would take the view that Bertie Ahern would be likely to need support from Sinn Féin to secure a Dáil majority for election as taoiseach, and for survival in office thereafter.
If during the election it emerges that such an outcome is a strong possibility, the Opposition parties will go to town, warning the electorate that only a vote for a Fine Gael/Labour coalition could save the country from this. And because many people still fear Sinn Féin controlling a government from outside, this could swing a lot of votes away from Fianna Fáil.
The best way for the principal government party to counter this threat is to invent an alternative Fianna Fáil/Labour coalition, and to persuade voters that this is a real possibility.
If Fianna Fáil can make such a outcome seem real, this might not only counter the danger of an electoral flight from Fianna Fáil by people fearful of Sinn Féin's influence on a minority Fianna Fáil government, but could also reduce support for Labour from anti-Fianna Fáil voters, and might also help to demoralise Fine Gael.
One does not need to be a political genius to see why Fianna Fáil is currently trying to sell the idea of Labour joining them in government.
There are, however, only two circumstances in which such a coalition could emerge from the forthcoming election.
The first of these is the "hung Dáil" scenario, ie a situation in which neither Mr Ahern nor Enda Kenny secures an endorsement as taoiseach by the Dáil. But how could that happen?
When the Dáil meets after the election, its first task will be to elect a ceann comhairle. That task accomplished, the newly-elected TDs will then be required to vote on a proposal to re-elect the outgoing Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and if he secures sufficient support from his own party, independents, and also from either Sinn Féin or the PDs, that will be the end of the matter.
If, however, he is defeated, then there will be a vote on Mr Kenny's nomination, and if all those who opposed Mr Ahern vote for Mr Kenny, he will become taoiseach.
The only circumstances in which there could be a "hung Dáil", with neither candidate elected, would be if some deputy or deputies, or a party such as Sinn Féin, were to vote against both candidates, or to abstain on one vote and vote against on another.
How likely is that scenario?
Highly unlikely, it seems to me, because anyone who took such a course would risk precipitating a second election, in which such a "spoiler" TD or "spoiling" political party would face the wrath of the electorate.
Why would any person or party choose to risk damaging their political future in this way when, by voting to put and later to keep in office one or other of the two candidates, they could gain political leverage for themselves under a taoiseach they had helped to elect?
No, a hung Dáil, in which the deadlock could be broken only by Labour switching sides to join Fianna Fáil in office is simply too improbable a circumstance to be credible. In what other circumstances could Labour find themselves in office with Fianna Fáil? Only, it seems to me, if after an election that had opened the way to the return of a Fianna Fáil government with support from some independents and Sinn Féin, Labour were to offer nobly to "save" the country from dependence by a Fianna Fáil government on such support.
But that would seem to require either the calling of a special Labour conference by Pat Rabbitte immediately after the election to enable the party to reverse his coalition stance - thus making nonsense of the case Labour had just been putting to the electorate - or else the calling of a special conference to ditch Mr Rabbitte as leader, followed by the calling of a second special conference by a new leader to endorse a coalition with Fianna Fáil. How likely are either of these two options?
A key factor in any such situation would surely be the memory of what happened to Labour support in 1993, after the November 1992 election in which Dick Spring had rejected the idea of campaigning for a Fine Gael/Labour coalition.
On that occasion, although the Labour leader had left his hands free, so that no reversal of alliances was involved, nevertheless Labour support in the polls after that government had been formed immediately dropped by one-third, and remained at that level until Labour further damaged its credibility by then abandoning Fianna Fáil and forming a new government with Fine Gael - at which point its support dropped even further. That experience does not offer much encouragement to Labour to ditch its chosen Fine Gael partner in the immediate aftermath of this election to enter government with Fianna Fáil - the record of which it will have spent many weeks denouncing before and during the election campaign.
Moreover, in switching partners to secure ministerial office Labour would be adopting a course which last Saturday's poll suggests only 13 per cent of the electorate favour, with almost five times as many expressing a preference for one or other of the alternative options that will actually have been put to the electorate.
So, the "hung Dáil" scenario is hugely improbable, and past experience suggests that Labour ditching its Fine Gael election partner to get into bed with Fianna Fáil, in this case against the stated wishes of its leader, would carry great danger for that party.
Meanwhile, last week's poll shows two things. Firstly, that at this point support for Labour and Fine Gael appears to match that of Fianna Fáil - with the PDs very weak indeed. And secondly, if after the election, the Greens followed their leader's preference, a new rainbow coalition in which that party joined with Fine Gael and Labour would on these figures have a clear Dáil majority - for the implementation of much more environmentally friendly policies than have been pursued by the present Government.