The general election campaign started in earnest at the weekend when Fianna Fáil rallied its supporters and sketched out the shape of things to come. As a confidence-building exercise, it was a success. In spite of his recent difficulties, the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, emerged with his popularity undimmed; his grip on the party strengthened and the prospect of serving a further five years in government enhanced. The parties offering an alternative government face a daunting task.
Fianna Fáil delegates and Ministers bubbled with enthusiasm as they considered the party's improved position in the opinion polls. The bounce in public support had come at the right time to steady the nerves of worried backbenchers and to set the scene for a carefully choreographed exercise that will focus primarily on economic stability and social issues during the coming months.
In his televised address, the party leader revisited the successful 2002 election strategy when he contrasted the benefits of a fairer and stronger society that Fianna Fáil would deliver to the uncertainties and dangers that resided in any arrangement involving Fine Gael and the Labour Party. In the process, Pat Rabbitte emerged as a fiscal bogeyman, identified by a succession of Ministers as a tax-and-spend addict who could not be trusted.
It was all fairly predictable. The failure of the Opposition parties to agree a comprehensive range of policies left them vulnerable to attack. At the same time, scope for creative politics had been tightly circumscribed by the Government's success in concluding a national agreement with the social partners. And Fianna Fáil still has two aces to play in the shape of a popular budget and a bountiful national development plan.
But voters can grow blase about economic growth. In order to sharpen and broaden the Government's appeal, Mr Ahern announced a surprise referendum. This time, instead of being asked to arbitrate on the rights of the unborn or on citizenship qualifications, as happened before elections in 2002 and 2004, voters will consider extending the rights of children under the Constitution. It was a clever move, because the need for change arising from underage sex abuse was likely to emerge as an election issue. By taking the initiative, the Taoiseach has silenced his critics while challenging them to support the policies of a caring Government.
An element of political slogan-stealing involving Fine Gael emerged in Mr Ahern's offer to build a stronger, fairer Ireland. But the Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, broke new ground in promising a budget surplus for 2007. Fiscal responsibility and long-term planning were his themes. That approach will still permit special treatment for small and medium enterprises, continuing low taxes and further investment in public services. With those broad interest bases covered, there will be thin pickings left for the Opposition parties. If governments lose elections, rather than oppositions win them, Fianna Fáil does not look particularly vulnerable.