FF rally party faithful to counter any SF threat

It will be the fourth Fianna Fβil ardfheis of this Government and still not the last

It will be the fourth Fianna Fβil ardfheis of this Government and still not the last. This weekend's festivities at the City West complex on Dublin's periphery follow the postponement, due to the foot-and-mouth crisis, of the gathering due for last March.

The RDS is booked already for another ardfheis next March - the Taoiseach has finally convinced everyone that this Dβil will run and run virtually to its deadline of June 2002 and so the next gathering will be the final pre-election rally.

The ardfheis at Citywest will be, as always, a party rally rather than a political event with any policy significance.

Indeed the tone is set in the very first motion: "That this ardfheis congratulates the enthusiasm and dedication of An Taoiseach Bertie Ahern TD in promoting the country abroad and working for the prosperity of all the people at home in Ireland."

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There is little of contention elsewhere on the agenda.

Tomorrow night's speech by the Taoiseach will contain a certain amount of self-congratulation, but the emphasis will also be on plans for the future.

Mr Ahern will position himself as a Taoiseach in mid-term rather than coming to the end of one. The Government's core message in its campaign for re-election is that they have done much, but have lots more to do.

Already the Taoiseach's programme manager, Mr Gerry Hickey, and special adviser, Dr Martin Mansergh, are overseeing the writing of an election manifesto.

They are unlikely to be awaiting the outcome of policy debates at this ardfheis. That is not the way things are done in Fianna Fβil, or indeed in Fine Gael. In the political battleground area of health, for example, there are motions calling for the appointment of more consultants, medical cards for all children under five and the abolition of the two-tier health system "where those who can pay have an advantage".

However, the Government's health strategy, to be unveiled within weeks, will not be decided at an ardfheis.

Not everyone in Fianna Fβil is happy with the ardfheis being seen only as a leader's rally. One motion for debate tomorrow afternoon implies dissatisfaction with the current status of the ardfheis, calling on the National Executive to report back on the implementation of motions passed at previous ardfheiseanna and other Fianna Fβil conferences.

The reality is that most policy motions down for "debate" are entirely bland, and those that purport to give specific mandates on issues are not seen by the party leadership as in the least binding. There is no motion on abortion, nor will there be. The Taoiseach and the Minister for Health are likely to refer to it in their speeches and that will be it.

Party activists will be most interested in the debate on internal organisation tomorrow afternoon.

The National Executive has proposed a series of amendments to the complex rules for the selection of party candidates, that most delicate of operations.

They will undoubtedly defeat a motion from the Brian Lenihan Cumann in Kildare North calling on the party to contest elections in the North.

But an ardfheis is about creating a mood, buoying up the troops and trying to put out a positive image to the wider public.

One key aim this weekend is encapsulated in the motion from the Eamonn de Valera Cumann in Dublin South Central saying: "That this ardfheis reaffirms our position as the voice of Irish republicanism."

Practical expression will be given to this reaffirmation on Sunday when the Taoiseach delivers the oration at Kevin Barry's new graveside in Glasnevin.

A loss of just two seats at the next General Election could see this Government failing to return, and Sinn FΘin is seriously threatening precisely that number.

In Kerry North and Dublin South West the party is fighting to stave off strong Sinn FΘin challenges. Party sources say they are somewhat more hopeful now than they were six months ago, believing that Sinn FΘin may have lost some of its allure due to its failure to move on the weapons issue.

This weekend, at Citywest and Glasnevin Cemetery, they will contest republican ideological ground with Sinn FΘin.

Mark Brennock is Political Correspondent of The Irish Times