A REFERENDUM on the European fiscal treaty, to be held on May 31st, is there for the Government to win. It would be a mistake, however, to discount the negative impact ministerial laziness and arrogance could have on public opinion. Being forced to ask the same question twice, in order to get the desired outcome, became something of a sick joke at the time of the Nice and Lisbon treaties. This time out, clear explanations and robust political campaigns are required from the outset. A lack of information must not be allowed to figure again as the public’s reason for rejection.
There are signs the electorate appreciates the importance of this treaty in the context of Ireland’s current economic and fiscal situation. Unlike the two previous occasions, when public support for the treaties started high and unravelled as the campaign progressed, this time opinion polls have plotted a gradual increase in support over a three month period. The Government parties should attempt to build on that momentum in the coming weeks.
One of the stark differences involving this treaty is the absence of a capacity for rejectionists to demand a better deal on the basis that unanimity is required for its adoption. A majority of countries within the Eurozone will implement the provisions of the document with or without Irish participation. If voters stand aloof, they will automatically forego the capacity to access emergency funding by way of a new Eurozone “firewall”. Such funding may not be required. But its availability could make a substantial difference to the cost of Government borrowing on international markets. That, in turn, will influence the range of public services it can afford to provide.
Opponents of the treaty have criticised it on the basis that it will perpetuate hardship. They do not say where money can be raised if it is rejected. Austerity became inevitable in this State because of banking guarantees and profligate spending and vote-buying of recent governments. It was not a new phenomenon. Since the foundation of the State, the economy has been brought to the brink of ruin on three separate occasions by governments that embarked on mad-cap, unsustainable spending. Given that track record, citizens could be forgiven for thinking an increase in budgetary discipline would be a positive development.
With eight weeks to go, the text of the Referendum Bill has not been published. The legislation will be rushed through the Dáil next week, opening the way for the appointment of a Referendum Commission. The Commission is unlikely to be in a position to issue an impartial explanation of what the treaty means until mid-May. By then, the Government will have grabbed the initiative and circulated a copy of the treaty, along with its own explanatory leaflet, to every household. Given such alacrity, it has clearly learned a lesson from the bloody nose it received in its campaign to introduce a property charge. Issuing a leaflet is, however, no substitute for knocking on doors.