For the second year running, Micheál Martin heads to Washington for St Patrick’s Day celebrations amid a welter of warnings and unsolicited advice on how he should conduct himself during his meeting with Donald Trump. Last year the sense of foreboding was deepened by what had happened in the Oval Office just a couple of weeks previously, when Trump’s encounter with Volodymyr Zelenskiy degenerated into a shouting match.
It was always unlikely that anything of that sort would happen during the Taoiseach’s visit, and the same is true this year. The St Patrick’s Day events are viewed in Washington as a bipartisan celebration of an important domestic constituency, even if the Irish-American electoral bloc is increasingly a thing of the past.
It is true that Trump’s erratic, stream-of-consciousness performances during these encounters leave open the possibility of unforeseen pitfalls. But the choreographed amiability of the occasion affords the visiting Taoiseach a measure of protection.
While 12 months ago the prime zone of danger was tariffs, this year it is America’s war with Iran, which has the potential to become the most glaring miscalculation of Trump’s presidency. Unpopular with voters, unclear in its objectives and disruptive to the global economy, the war seems set to further damage Republican electoral prospects this year.
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Despite calls from some members of the Opposition for Martin to speak out against the war during his trip, that seems improbable. There have already been some careful words about the merits of negotiation and diplomacy, but there is little prospect of the Taoiseach being drawn on the legality of the campaign.
President Connolly’s statement eight days ago condemning the conflict as a violation of international law will not be echoed in the Oval Office, nor at any of the other celebratory events over the course of the day. As the Government made clear last week, it bears sole responsibility for how the State conducts its foreign policy.
The calculation is that there is little to be gained and much to lose from provoking the unpredictable occupant of the White House. Those who decry this as moral cowardice are generally not faced with making the very real and consequential choices confronting the leader of a small country unusually dependent on its economic relationship with the US.
The Taoiseach has already demonstrated his ability to navigate this test with a fixed smile. In seeking to repeat the feat tomorrow, he must attempt to avoid the embarrassing obsequiousness that some other visiting heads of state have shown. It may not be the most elevated task he will perform during his term in office, but it is a vital one nonetheless.
