The Irish Times view on Ireland’s energy supply: the State knew this was coming

The latest consultation paper from the Commission for Regulation of Utilities (CRU) provides a worrying outlook for energy supply over the winter. This has been coming and suggestions that Government ministers are somehow surprised are not convincing. Ireland’s energy grid has not had the required investment over many years to deal with rising demand and now, as other factors come into play, a difficult winter may lie ahead.

Ireland’s electricity outlook was precarious even before Russia invaded Ukraine. The lack of grid investment on one side causes problems with energy supply and must now be addressed in the context of the move to renewable power and the much greater reliance this will mean on electricity. Meanwhile, demand has been driven by a growing economy and an increasing population, and notably by the arrival of a significant number of data centres, which are high energy users.

Ireland’s electricity infrastructure creaked last winter and now there are signs of trouble ahead as the weather gets cold again. Eirgrid has already issued two amber alerts – signs to users that the system is under stress. And the Ukraine war has sent the price of gas shooting higher – and close to half Ireland’s electricity comes from gas-fired stations.

A plan to put in place temporary capacity from new gas-fired facilities has not yet happened and a new auction to address this will take time to deliver – if indeed it can be done. This leaves the system particularly vulnerable in calm weather when wind generation is low.

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This has led the CRU to signal that new measures are needed to lower demand at peak times – and quickly. This, it proposes, would include higher tariffs at times of heavy demand, to discourage household consumers and in particular big, energy-hungry businesses from using a lot of power at these times. Eirgid, the state-owned electricity power transmission operator, warns that plans to introduce this as soon as October could cause significant problems.

Ireland’s energy crux is reflected elsewhere across the EU. This State’s particular exposure is its reliance on energy imports and a complete lack of storage capacity for gas, along with insufficient network investment. Like the housing crisis, the Government faces the challenge of pushing ahead with major investment, which will take time to deliver, while at the same time dealing with significant short-term pressures. A review by former secretary general to the government Dermot McCarthy on Ireland’s power balance is awaited, as is the outcome of a long-awaited review of energy security from Minister for Energy Eamon Ryan.

Finger-pointing is justifiable and understandable but the key challenge is planning a way out, within the wider context of a move to renewable energy.