Most Cubans, however counter-revolutionary, will be keen to preserve social achievements Cuba is not expected to introduce Western-style democracy anytime soon or to dismantle the command economy overnight, writes Conor O'Clery.
There is an intriguing sentence in Fidel Castro's 1,000-word letter of resignation as Cuba's president, published yesterday. It states: "My elemental duty is not to cling to positions, much less to stand in the way of younger persons, but rather to contribute experience and ideas whose modest value comes from the exceptional era in which I lived."
The phrase "not to cling to positions" carries a hint that Castro knows his rigid socialist model is failing and that he expects his brother Raúl Castro, who is almost certain to be elected president next week, to develop what his officials call Cuban-style democracy.
In Cuba last year I asked Ricardo Alarcón, the second highest-ranked communist official in the administration, what he meant by the development of Cuban-style democracy. Pulling on an after-dinner cigar in the elegant Café del Oriente in Old Havana, he predicted some modifications.
"Democracy," he said, "will evolve after Fidel; it is not the work of one man."
Raúl Castro is not expected to introduce Western-style democratic values anytime soon or to dismantle the command economy overnight. Most Cubans, however counter-revolutionary, will be keen to preserve the social achievements of the revolution, especially free education and a health system that is a model for the developing world. But the new leadership will have to respond to expectations of significant reform now that Castro has stood aside.
Some modifications have already taken place, many instigated by Raúl Castro and the military he controls, and they indicate a preference for the Chinese model, where capitalist practices are introduced on the understanding that people will not challenge the political system. This has made it imperative "not to cling to positions" though Fidel's farewell message falls far short of Deng Xiaoping's statement, "It is glorious to be rich", that signalled the end of old-style Chinese communism.
Tourism today is responsible for Cuba's economic recovery and this has required some compromises with the capitalist world. In order to cater for the two million foreigners who spend the equivalent of €1.5 billion a year, French and Spanish firms have been allowed to come in and provide hotels and restaurants of international standard. Cubans have been permitted to open private restaurants in their homes, known as paladars, which also cater to foreigners.
Another reform has been the introduction of a two-tier currency of domestic pesos and convertible pesos known as divisas, for use by tourists. The better-off Cubans can get divisas from the tourist business - a tip to a taxi-driver or a paladar owner might be more than a doctor's weekly salary - or by converting dollars sent by relatives in the US. This has allowed the emergence of a nouveau riche in Havana and parallel black economy, and has created disparities that raise questions about the sustainability of the system.
The key to prosperity is improved relations between Cuba and the US. The integrity of the quarrel between Havana and Washington has long survived the cold war. The US trade embargo is so strict that Cuba cannot buy any equipment abroad, in any country, that has 10 per cent American-made components, and a ship flying any flag that docks in Havana is banned from US ports for six months.
A change of leadership in both countries could provide a template for improved relations. Raúl Castro offered to have dialogue with the US when he assumed command after Fidel became ill in August 2006. A 10-strong bipartisan group from the US Congress visited Havana just over a year ago, raising hopes of détente.
In Cuba, the secretary of the Cuban Communist Party for international affairs, Fernando Ramírez, told me that he looked to a new alignment of the left in Latin America for Cuba's future.
This has found expression in an alliance with Hugo Chávez, president of oil-rich Venezuela, who has provided preferential oil prices and investment in oil infrastructure. But Chávez's recent setbacks and decline in popular support may give Cuba's new leadership second thoughts.
Much will depend on which candidate wins the presidential election in the US in November. The likely Republican candidate, Senator John McCain, has sparred recently with the Cuban leader over the use of torture in his prisons and is a strong supporter of the trade embargo. Democratic Party contender Hillary Clinton also supports the embargo until the emergence of a democratic government.
Barack Obama said during his presidential campaign that he would be willing to talk to Fidel Castro, and presumably that applies now to Raúl. If as president he did so, it would mean the end of the law forbidding Washington from talking to any Cuban leader who is not freely elected.
The Illinois senator told Cuban Americans that he is in favour of easing the trade embargo, though he said four years ago he would scrap it. Both he and Hillary Clinton have, however, promised to remove US-imposed travel restrictions that keep families separated, something that would have the support of a majority of Cuban Americans.
There are many potential benefits for Washington in a new relationship. The embargo is self-defeating. It prevents American firms from investing in Cuba's oil, nickel, fruit and vegetable products and tourism. And if the US can do business with communist China, why not with a communist Cuba, sans Fidel, that adopts Chinese characteristics.
Conor O'Clery is a former North America editor of The Irish Times