The next 48 hours will be critical for the peace process in Northern Ireland. The events of recent days are redolent of the darkest period of 1969. There is a chilling sense of deja vu with bitter sectarian hatred on the streets, people confined to their homes and a renewed security build-up under way.
Northern Ireland is on the brink; the peace process has rarely looked so fragile. There are already signs that the optimism which has largely held sway since the republican and loyalist ceasefires were first declared almost two years ago, is dissipating; many prospective visitors are cancelling holidays, tourists are taking their leave of Northern Ireland and there are renewed doubts about investment projects.
The tragedy is that the stand-off in Drumcree was entirely predictable in the wake of last year's shameful display of Unionist triumphalism. The fact that neither community in Portadown made any concerted effort to avoid a repetition of last year's events, speaks volumes. A great deal may have been accomplished by both the Irish and British governments at the conference table but the hearts and minds of the two communities remain locked into the ancient quarrel.
The British government deserves credit for its unequivocal support of the RUC's handling of the situation. Mr Major and the Northern Secretary, Sir Patrick Mayhew, have been resolute and unswerving. The contrast with the craven behaviour of Mr Harold Wilson's Labour government during the Ulster Workers' Strike in 1974 could hardly be more apparent. The hope must be that their resolve is not weakened by further street violence and public unrest.
It is regrettable in the current inflamed circumstances that there has been such a lack of firm and measured leadership from the representatives of the Unionist community. Perhaps we should not be surprised by this. The Garvaghy Road has become a powerful symbol of unionist resistance to the whole thrust of Anglo-Irish policy on Northern Ireland. And Mr Trimble owes his current position in large measure to his perceived "victory" in Portadown one year ago.
It is easy now to heap opprobrium on Mr Trimble and to portray him as a fundamentalist. But that would be a disservice to someone whose political courage and leadership helped to keep the all-party talks on course when the dispute over the chairmanship of Senator George Mitchell brought them to the point of collapse. On that occasion, Mr Trimble showed himself to be a leader of some substance. The pity is that he still feels obliged to support some elemental forces and dubious traditions in his own community.
The hope must now be that yesterday's negotiations between Mr Trimble and church leaders will open the way for compromise. Early this morning, Cardinal Daly was reported to be holding talks with the Garvaghy residents. Compromise wilt not meet the needs of either the residents or the marchers, but the case for both sides moving out of their trenches is compelling. The alternative, as the Cardinal spelt out so starkly yesterday, is to drift towards catastrophe.