Coup threat in the Philippines

President Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines has diverted calls for her resignation and impeachment by a parliamentary manoeuvre…

President Gloria Arroyo of the Philippines has diverted calls for her resignation and impeachment by a parliamentary manoeuvre, along with a call for reform of the political system by making it more responsive to citizen demands.

She faces a political crisis arising from her election last year, having been accused of cheating, electoral corruption and betraying the trust of those who voted her into a second term. There is not sufficient support for an impeachment, while systemic reform appears quite unrealistic. This political vacuum could well be filled by a military coup or another round of people power if the impasse continues.

The Philippines' population of 84 million is straddled over a large Pacific archipelago and beset by a dysfunctional political and economic system. Since the popular street movement which overthrew the Marcos dictatorship, the country has been governed by a succession of generals turned statesmen alternating with populist politicians.

Mrs Arroyo was first elected in 2001 on a platform of cleaning up politics, reducing elite power, more effective collection of taxes and helping the poor. While she made some progress towards these objectives - which all too accurately catalogue much of the country's malaise - her re-election campaign last year catapulted her back into the vulgar political game of Philippines politics.

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Earlier this month she admitted being to blame for corruption and then suffered the humiliation of a mass resignation from her cabinet in protest. Yesterday it became obvious that there is little prospect of any breakthrough for a reform agenda. There is insufficient support in the lower house of parliament for an impeachment motion, while it faces a prolonged consideration in the senate. Seasoned commentators foresee another round of the country's abiding problems: a widening gulf between the ruling political and economic elite and the impoverished mass of the population, accompanied by growing emigration among the middle class.

In abstract terms Mrs Arroyo's proposals to shift power from the existing presidential system towards a parliamentary one make sense - if only they could attract support from the political elite. But their interests are well served by the present regime, in which there is little control over corrupt campaign contributions, slack party discipline and minimal accountability to the electorate.

Mrs Arroyo went on to propose that a federal system would better serve the nation's interests. It would accommodate the rebellious southern provinces, facilitate decentralisation and rebalance state finances. But again this would not suit existing entrenched interests - including the multinational companies controlling Philippine resources who prefer to deal with a compliant government in Manila.

In these circumstances rumours of army coups and street movements to force through reforms look more plausible.