After the bomb defused in London yesterday afternoon, the question posed by the Canary Wharf bomb last week why has the IRA broken its ceasefire? - is still riddled with ambiguity. The answer given by one of its spokesman in an An Phoblacht interview - that "the end of the cessation was brought about by John Major's cynical misuse and betrayal of the historic opportunity offered by the peace initiative" is deliberately evasive. It skates over the obvious fact that there are deep divisions about strategy in the IRA and Sinn Fein.
The Taoiseach rightly insisted in the Dail that the channels must be kept open, while admitting that the situation was now "immeasurably complex". The IRA continues to talk about negotiation. If this isn't just a formula to keep its divided wings together, or to impress its well wishers in the United States, it could be a chink of light keeping hope alive. But does the IRA really believe that it has made the achievement of a negotiated settlement more likely? The answer can only be that nothing is possible until the ceasefire is reinstated. And even then ...
Mercifully, no one was killed or injured in the West End of London yesterday, as a result of prompt action by the police in response to a coded warning. But that, though fortunate, was largely due to luck, as the numerous examples in the past 25 years of bombs that did go off, in spite of warnings, fully demonstrate. Many people might have died in Shaftesbury Avenue, and their epitaph would have been, as on previous occasions, an expression of hollow regret.
Beyond the "why" of the return to violence, lies the "what": what does the IRA hope to gain? If one thing has been proved by a quarter of a century of indiscriminate killing - beyond its gross inhumanity - it is its political futility. There may be short term effects, as appears to be the case in the shifting of the political logjam in the last week; but these have been more than negated by the hardening of attitudes which must make negotiation more difficult.
Since the ceasefire 17 months ago, Sinn Fein and Mr Gerry Adams have secured a hearing in the preliminary dialogue out of all proportion to their electoral support. This may have strengthened their expectations, but it has not changed the underlying reality or the problems of finding a viable settlement. There must be an end to all inflexibility, including that of Sinn Fein.
The political issues must now be addressed with increased urgency. The bomb yesterday, and the blunt statements in An Phoblacht, virtually remove any doubt that the ceasefire, as far as the IRA is concerned, has ended, at least for the moment. That does not mean the end of the political process; on the contrary, it must act as an incitement to the two governments, and to the political parties, to build on the emerging consensus about the next steps to get talks started.
Mr Reynolds who has undoubtedly played his role in the peace initiative, repeated his version of events preceding the ceasefire which the British government has denied. Whether it is useful to muddy the waters in this way now is debatable. But there is no question that he is absolutely right in saying that a political process that is not fed will starve itself to death. The thought should be taken to heart by all the various interests at this critical point.