Ahern may come to regret SF stance

A statement by the Taoiseach that he will not enter government with Sinn Féin after the next general election, or do a deal with…

A statement by the Taoiseach that he will not enter government with Sinn Féin after the next general election, or do a deal with that party in return for its parliamentary support, bears the hallmarks of a domestic damage-limitation exercise.

In making such an explicit statement about his political intentions, Mr Ahern has sought to protect Fianna Fáil's electoral base while making life more difficult for Fine Gael, for Sinn Féin and for the Labour Party. But he may have offered a hostage to fortune in Northern Ireland.

For some months now, Fine Gael has been hammering away at the dangers posed by a post-election alliance involving Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin. Opinion polls have indicated which Sinn Féin may win about 10 per cent of the popular vote and hold the balance of power between the parties that are competing to form the next government.

Public concern over such an eventuality could become a potent weapon in Fine Gael's election armoury as it seeks to regain lost seats. At the same time, Enda Kenny may have cause to worry that the Labour Party could be encouraged to switch sides and join Fianna Fáil rather than see Sinn Féin enter government.

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The decision by Mr Ahern to clarify his position at this time, just as Fine Gael was holding its party conference and the Progressive Democrats celebrated 20 years of existence, reflected the headline-grabbing nature of the exercise.

Mr Kenny's expression of disbelief was only to be expected. But the president of the Progressive Democrats, Michael McDowell, continued to warn against Sinn Féin's ambition to gain power through Fianna Fáil. And, as if to emphasise the fluidity of the situation, the Tánaiste and party leader, Mary Harney, spoke of sharing power in government with Fine Gael and the Labour Party if the arithmetic was right.

The intensity of the exchanges would suggest that while a general election is not due to be held until 2007, the contest could take place next year. And, like it or not, Sinn Féin has become a potent factor in government-formation considerations. A combination of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party has consistently attracted higher support in opinion polls than that enjoyed by Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats. But both groups fall short of the necessary working majority.

In this fluid situation, the Taoiseach has warned traditional Fianna Fáil voters that support for Sinn Féin could cost the party its place in government and jeopardise the State's new-found prosperity.

By attacking Sinn Féin's economic policies as the main barrier to government, Mr Ahern has taken the focus off IRA decommissioning and the organisation's commitment to democratic politics. At the same time, he has attempted to distinguish between forms of government on both sides of the Border. It is not a distinction that has recommended itself to the Democratic Unionist Party and he may yet regret it.