US voters are happier with their lot at the end of two Clinton presidency terms - and far more satisfied with the state of the economy. But this does not translate into greater satisfaction with their political system at the opening of a presidential election year. The Iowa caucuses on January 24th are the first outing, followed by the celebrated New Hampshire primaries on February 1st. Then it is on to the big primaries on March 7th and 14th, which will most likely determine the candidates for the main parties.
Opinion polls and journalistic reportage reveal high levels of apathy and indifference at this early but crucial stage of the campaign. Surveys indicate most people are paying no attention to it; the television encounters so far have done little or nothing to stimulate interest. They are bored by the candidates, unclear about the issues and in a deeper sense alienated from a political process that is dominated by negative campaigning and the utter predominance of money in determining who attracts most public attention. It is a depressing picture of what is in theory one of the world's most vibrant and developed democracies.
But it is early days in the campaign. The principal task at this stage is to sort out the main candidates standing for the Democrats and Republicans. Observers say that unless Mr Bill Bradley or Senator John McCain (the candidates standing in second place respectively for each of the parties) do well in Iowa and New Hampshire they will have great difficulty sustaining their campaigns towards the big primaries in March. It will also be much more difficult for them to raise the money without which it will be impossible to continue. Mr Al Gore and Mr George Bush jnr are both powerfully placed in national terms to withstand such competition.
Only a tiny proportion of the US electorate is involved at this stage of the campaign; it would be a mistake to draw conclusions from it for the rest of the year, notwithstanding the apathy and indifference so much in evidence so far. The strength of the US economy has removed what would normally be expected to be a potent issue - it would be tricky for either of the main parties to raise the economic vulnerability to over-borrowing and collapse of the US savings ratio as credible campaigning points. Levels of taxation are more promising, notably between Mr Bush and Mr McCain in the Republican camp. Otherwise healthcare, pensions, education and gun control are up and running as campaign issues. Foreign policy matters have figured little so far.
The presidential contest is but one in a vast array of elections being held in the United States this year. They include 50 state legislatures, congressional elections and votes for countless public offices. Many of these will be contested as vigorously and as passionately as the presidential election, although that attracts most domestic and international attention. The New York Senate election is one of the most interesting, as Mrs Hilary Clinton and Mr Rudolph Giuliani square up for a long and gruelling contest. She demonstrated her talent for communication this week by a confident and witty performance on a popular television show that had goaded her for refusing to appear before. Personalities certainly make news in this media-driven age.