A sense something is happening, but little detail

Senator George Mitchell has informed the British and Irish governments that really, truly, honestly, he intends to be out of …

Senator George Mitchell has informed the British and Irish governments that really, truly, honestly, he intends to be out of Belfast by the weekend. That could be tomorrow, Saturday, Sunday, or . . .

When Downtown Radio ran a story yesterday evening that he had set a weekend deadline for his review, Senator Mitchell, through his spokesman, said he never said such a thing "publicly".

This was not a denial, talks sources were keen to emphasise.

The only point was that if a deal was possible on Monday morning the senator would hang around for that extra period.

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But not much longer, if there was no chance of an agreement. So this really seems to be the endgame. "All the waffle is out of the way," as one talks source put it.

And still it is hard to read whether Gerry Adams and David Trimble will reconcile their differences over decommissioning and devolution. But at least there is a sense that Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionist Party are getting down to business.

Recent negotiations between the parties have been "intense", said Sinn Fein vice-president Pat Doherty at Castle Buildings yesterday evening. "These talks are very serious and they are indeed at a very serious juncture and you may be assured that Sinn Fein will do everything it can to resolve this review and to see that it comes to a successful conclusion," he said.

Apart from a one-paragraph statement Mr Doherty did not say anything else. He would take no questions from reporters. That was the general pattern yesterday.

Senator Mitchell said last Saturday that on his return yesterday he would have suggestions for the parties designed to break the deadlock over guns and government. He arrived at Castle Buildings at 2.25 p.m. yesterday carrying an A4-size brown envelope.

Did this contain his blueprint for progress? Nobody was saying. He met the parties throughout yesterday and for once the politicians were observing his news blackout. Downtown Radio reported that Sinn Fein and the UUP exchanged papers in recent days, but again neither side would confirm this.

Senator Mitchell may hold off on presenting another "way forward" paper until the end of the week. He will want to hear what progress, if any, was achieved while he was home in the US at the weekend, before giving his best read on how the agreement might be implemented.

We are still in the territory of "good atmospherics". Various sources confirm the relationship between the UUP and Sinn Fein teams is good. There is a very serious exchange, they say.

There is a sense that something is happening, but very little detail. The problem is still the same: would David Trimble go into an executive with Sinn Fein on the basis of an assurance about IRA decommissioning that falls short of an actual commitment? And would Mr Trimble survive such a risk?

As has been stated so often, commitment is "surrender" in republican terms, and upsets their ability to argue to their rank and file that any move on arms is voluntary. But within that context, would Gerry Adams provide a form of wording that would allow Mr Trimble to tell his 110-member executive tomorrow, or perhaps later, that decommissioning will happen, and happen quickly?

There was talk last weekend of the parties, perhaps, forming a shadow executive to buy time so that these so-called improved atmospherics might allow the executive to be formed a month or two down the line. This would be on the basis of the reputed constantly improving trust between the two parties providing the opportunity for a resolution of the guns/government impasse.

There is no appetite for this within Sinn Fein. It wants all of the agreement, not a Belfast Agreement Light, according to party sources. Notwithstanding this stance, all the pro-agreement parties may yet have to settle for something short of the real thing if the deal can't be done by the weekend.

At the moment, though, it is still about the full agreement and sequencing. Where possibilities might open up is in the creation of the institutions that flow from the executive: the North-South bodies, the North-South council and the British-Irish council.

The first two are crucial for republicans because they carry the all-Ireland dimension of the Belfast Agreement. In recent weeks Sinn Fein has been insisting that, before the possibility of movement on arms, these institutions must created.

What's interesting is that the governments have the machinery in place to establish these bodies quickly. It could be done in a week, said a Dublin source.

So if the institutions could be so speedily implemented, would the IRA respond with some "product" equally speedily? If Mr Trimble is to jump first, and to remain as UUP leader, he must be able to assert on the basis of some form of guarantee that an acceptable form of decommissioning would quickly follow. As Peter Mandelson says, the least he needs is clarity and credibility.

In the end it may be a question of Mr Adams and Mr Trimble being pushed, rather than jumping together. And it may be for Senator Mitchell to do the pushing, as in presenting his own take-it-or-leave-it formula for breaking the deadlock.

That probably would involve some pain and gain for both sides, and some element of risk. We won't know until the weekend whether this is possible, because usually talkative sources were keeping mum last night. But the silence may be no bad thing.