FINE GAEL is winning the war of words with the Labour Party and is on course to lead the next government. The party has increased its popular support in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll by four points to 37 per cent. Such a performance in next Friday’s general election would leave it short of an overall Dáil majority but, with one-in-five-voters still undecided, its activists can continue to hope for a late surge.
The Labour party and its leader Eamon Gilmore will be deeply disappointed by these findings. Support for the party continued to decline as it challenged Fine Gael’s economic policies and was, in turn, accused of being a high tax party. It has shed five points in two weeks and, with it, the dream of electing a Labour Party taoiseach. Public backing has fallen to 19 per cent nationally – a far cry from last September’s 33 per cent – and Fine Gael has moved slightly ahead in what was its Dublin stronghold.
Despite the fierceness of head-to-head exchanges between the two parties on policy, they are still expected to form a coalition government. This holds true across all regions and by all age and social groups. Nearly twice as many people prefer a Fine Gael/Labour Party coalition, compared to the next most favoured option of Fine Gael and Independents.
As Fine Gael moved into a dominant, government-forming position in recent weeks, support for Enda Kenny as taoiseach grew rapidly and he now holds a commanding lead over Eamon Gilmore. In contrast, their relative popularity as party leaders remains unchanged. Reflecting economic differences and financial uncertainty, Richard Bruton or Michael Noonan are also chosen by large margins for the position of minister for finance in a new government over Joan Burton, Ruairí Quinn or Pat Rabbitte. Whoever gets that job will be expected to negotiate a better deal with the EU-IMF on Ireland’s bailout package. A majority of voters believe this goal is achievable.
The news for Fianna Fáil is dismal. Even though the party has gained a single point since the election was called, support remains deeply depressed at 16 per cent and it trails the Labour Party, Fine Gael and Independents in attracting second preference votes. Should that pattern be repeated in the polling booths next Friday, it will suffer a terrible thrashing.
The only positive signal has been a bounce of support for the party in Leinster. Sinn Féin has continued to leak support in Dublin but it attracts 20 per cent support in Connacht/Ulster and 11 per cent nationally. Support for the Green Party stands at 2 per cent.
With four days remaining, the level of “don’t knows” has fallen to 19 per cent and two-thirds of voters have firmly decided on their voting intentions. A preponderance of the 30 per cent prepared to change their minds now support Fine Gael. If there is to be a shock result, it will come from this group. Nonetheless, there appears to be a momentum now.