The unresolved divisions in the Football Association of Ireland (FAI) over Eircom Park will boost a Government already hell-bent on the construction of its own stadium complex at Blanchardstown, about 8.5 kilometres to the northwest of Dublin city-centre.
The latest figure for the cost of the stadium complex is £640 million and it is acknowledged that there would be ongoing operating losses in addition. Given that Eircom Park has doubled in cost, it seems improbable that the £640 million figure will remain static.
The proposal is being driven by the Taoiseach's Department, and not, as one might expect, by the Department of Sport and Tourism. Three critical issues are raised by this proposal. These are:
Does Dublin need an additional stadium?
If so, what would be a reasonable cost, and
Where should such a stadium be located, if one is indeed needed?
At present, there are two large stadiums in Dublin, one at Croke Park, currently being redeveloped with funds generated largely by the Gaelic Athletic Association but with substantial Exchequer support, and the other at Lansdowne Road. Neither of these venues is inundated with fixtures.
At Croke Park, the next major fixture will be on March 17th and there will then be a gap until the Leinster and All-Ireland championship games get under way from May to September. There could be about 15 or 16 match-days at Croke Park in the coming season, depending on the vagaries of the fixture list and on replays.
At Lansdowne Road, the major soccer and rugby internationals, plus one-off events such as soccer testimonials, rarely bring the number of major events above 10 or 12.
These are very low rates of use for large stadiums. Either venue could readily accommodate more fixtures. Most large stadiums hold 25 or 30 fixtures a year.
This consideration has not deflected the FAI from progressing its proposal for Eircom Park, a smaller-scale stadium than the Government's scheme, and one not reliant at all on taxpayers' money.
The proposed Eircom Park would be in my constituency and indeed I supported the planning application for it - before, however, its costs escalated.
If Eircom Park goes ahead, the case for the Government's stadium is undermined, but even if it does not, there are simply not enough big fixtures to go around. The city may not need three stadiums, never mind four.
The £640 million price tag, if that turns out to be the limit of the cost, is an extraordinary figure, way above the costs of comparable facilities already constructed or in train in other cities. Some cost comparisons are shown in the accompanying table for stadium projects in Britain and Germany, and for Croke Park.
In the case of the stadiums with a major soccer club as anchor tenant, a minimum of about 25 fixtures a year is guaranteed. The proposed stadium in Munich, which would replace the one built for the 1970 Olympics, would have both of the city's Bundesliga teams, Bayern and 1860 Munich, as tenants and could thus expect to host 50 or more fixtures a year.
The complex at Blanchardstown being developed by the Taoiseach's Department differs from these projects in two key respects. It is set to cost substantially more, by an enormous margin, and it has no anchor tenant. A handful of rugby internationals, with no contracts signed, is the current hope. I suspect that not a sod was turned on any of the above until the tenancy contracts were finalised.
The Government accordingly has two pieces of explaining to do. Why is this development due to cost so much, and what events are going to be held there?
There is a third issue. Even if it were conceded that a third stadium is required in the city of Dublin, is Blanchardstown a desirable location? How are 80,000 people to access and exit the venue safely? Croke Park and Lansdowne Road share the most desirable feature of proximity to the city-centre and convenience to public transport networks.
At a more prosaic level, how many pubs, restaurants and hotels are within walking distance of the Blanchardstown site? Would the site even be attractive for spectators? It is worth asking if the slightly disappointing 22,000 who turned up for the recent midweek soccer friendly against Finland would have made the trip to Blanchardstown.
The trend in stadium planning worldwide seems to be back towards town-centre locations, which offer readymade public transport.
Before further public funds are committed to this alarmingly expensive project, and before the outgoing Government contractually commits its successor, it is surely time for a rethink.
If Eircom Park goes ahead under whatever guise, the Government should cancel Blanchardstown. But even if the FAI's project is cancelled, there must be more cost-effective options, including a revamp of Lansdowne, or a new Docklands stadium. In either case, a budget in the £100 million to £150 million bracket should be adequate.
Pat Rabbitte is a Labour Party TD for Dublin South West