The EU must derisk its changing relationship with China

The outcome of the war in Ukraine will be central to the shape of the new engagement

Derisk, don’t decouple. Manage the changing relationship with China through diplomacy. Take full account of the more geopolitical, powerful and assertive China but engage frankly with it on respective interests and values. Ukraine will be a determining factor.

Such is the emerging European Union policy consensus on China after recent debates in its institutions and member-states. It comes ahead of next week’s visit to Beijing by the European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen and French president Emmanuel Macron, preceded by that of the Spanish prime minister Pedro Sánchez this weekend.

Chinese commentators note how the Ukraine war may disrupt or destroy the EU’s geopolitical dream of becoming a key player in a multipolar world

Von der Leyen dealt with these issues in an important speech at the European Policy Centre (EPC) think tank in Brussels ahead of the visit. Beginning with tributes to China’s remarkable transformation in the last 50 years into the world’s second largest power, the speech ended on a hopeful note that nothing is inevitable in geopolitics, that China is fascinating and complex, and that there is no need for the EU to be defensive about the relationship. Instead, its commitment to human rights and democratic politics must be reinforced.

But she emphasised the need for a sober assessment of China’s new strategic intentions, regional security assertiveness and longer term political ambitions to become the world’s most powerful nation by 2049. Noting how the power relationship between China and Russia has been reversed from the 1980s, she said this is the context in which achieving a just peace in Ukraine will determine future EU-Chinese relations. It will be a test of whether, to summarise Macron’s policy approach, the EU’s engagement with China will in fact put pressure on Russia.

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That the EU’s China policies are closely entangled with those of the US is commonly acknowledged. The major question is how closely they will in future be aligned

Von der Leyen said new security concerns are overriding open politics and free trade in China’s approach. But that is no reason to decouple the relationship – as seems to be the logic of recent US policy. Rather, the EU-China relationship should be derisked, better understood and more engaged.

That can be done by strengthening the existing multilateral international system, cooperating with China on climate policy and economic links, essential for both. Relations should be derisked by stronger EU policies on health, digital and green technology, more effective export controls for emerging technologies, more diversification of rare minerals, better EU liaison with international partners and greater policy coherence between its member-states. The Chinese ambassador to the EU yesterday warned its members-states about US pressure to sanction China, saying the Netherlands has yielded to it on semi-conductors.

The EPC event was organised with the Mercator Institute for China Studies, a source of critical analysis and reportage on the EU-China relationship; it is currently sanctioned as unfriendly by the Chinese government, along with some MEPs. Other significant policy thinking can be found in the latest issue of the German quarterly journal Internationale Politik, reflecting that country’s close economic ties with China and deepening geopolitical understanding of world affairs.

Von der Leyen is seen as closer to US positions than other EU and European leaders by European commentators

A new think-tank, the Brussels Institute for Geopolitics, reflects the European Commission’s own preoccupations. It is predicated on the belief that “the world has entered into a new age of rivalry and uncertainty, and to thrive in this new era Europe must learn to act and think in terms of power, interests and strategy”, including on China. It acknowledges that “strategy and geopolitics were never what the European Union was designed for”.

That the EU’s China policies are closely entangled with those of the US is commonly acknowledged. The major question is how closely they will in future be aligned. Von der Leyen is seen as closer to US positions than other EU and European leaders by European commentators, reflecting continuing tensions on transatlantic policies.

Chinese commentators note how the Ukraine war may disrupt or destroy the EU’s geopolitical dream of becoming a key player in a multipolar world. They say it will undermine its desired strategic autonomy by kidnapping that ambition in a stronger Nato controlled from Washington. They also note transatlantic tensions and China’s interest in an EU more independent of the US. This theme is now much more central in Chinese policy.

To fulfil Von der Leyen’s more hopeful scenario, her and Macron’s talks with Xi next week would stress their mutual interest in derisking the relationship to allow for a potential third way between other world centres of power, notably the US and the Global South. Finding pathways to a just Ukraine peace deal is central to that.