Stephen Collins: Irish politics heading in same direction as self-destructive Britain

The Government’s emphatic victory in the Dáil motion of confidence on Tuesday evening should give Coalition TDs the confidence to carry on governing as best they can safe in the knowledge that they won’t have to fight an election for the foreseeable future.

The Dáil motion, which followed days of speculation suggesting the Government was in a precarious position following the decision of Donegal TD Joe McHugh to resign the Fine Gael whip, showed just how wrong prevailing political wisdom can be.

A decisive majority of 19 showed that the Coalition parties have the good sense to stick together at a time of peril but it also revealed that there is little appetite among the ranks of Independents for an early general election that could cost them their seats. Some Independents, like Kildare’s Cathal Berry, backed the Government for solid policy reasons and even those who supported the Sinn Féin motion did so in the knowledge that there was no chance of the Coalition losing.

The transformation over the past decade from a bankrupt nation in need of a bailout to one of the most successful economies on the globe has been astonishing

Whatever about poor opinion poll results, the one thing the Government has on its side is time. What it has to do over the coming two years is make a determined attempt to shape the narrative around which the next election will be fought. That will require imagination as well as some success in tackling long running sores like housing.

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By any objective criteria the Coalition has performed well on the big issues over the past two years. It brought the country through the Covid crisis in good shape and through a variety of income support schemes cushioned a substantial portion of the electorate from potentially devastating economic consequences.

The policy mix has enabled the country to bounce back far faster than many others. Contrast the surging economic growth in Ireland as a result of the policies pursued by successive governments with the stagnation of the British economy which is the poorest performing economy in the G7 and in danger of drifting into recession.

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The transformation over the past decade from a bankrupt nation in need of a bailout to one of the most successful economies on the globe has been astonishing, even if the role of the Coalition in creating the conditions for that achievement does not appear to have impinged on too many voters.

That is partly down to the natural tendency of a sceptical electorate to focus on the shortcomings of the Government of the day rather than its successes but it has also something to do with the failure of the Coalition parties to communicate their achievements in a coherent manner. Instead they have allowed the Opposition to set a negative agenda on issue after issue.

The problem facing the Coalition is that voters are often not interested in hearing about the dangers of the unknown

Sinn Féin has employed the populist playbook of Donald Trump and Boris Johnson to exploit all of the issues on which the Government is under pressure. It is worth pointing out that the combination of nationalist rhetoric, extravagant spending plans and support for lower taxes by the Conservative Party is precisely what has dragged the UK to the verge of recession.

The current Conservative Party leadership election, in which all of the candidates are vying with each other to demonstrate their anti EU credentials, is a direct result of the incoherent and self destructive turn British politics has taken since Brexit. On present trends Irish politics is heading in the same direction.

In his robust Dáil contribution Micheál Martin described the current state of Irish politics as a contest between those who believe in tackling problems and those who believe in exploiting them. That was all too true but he and his colleagues in Government clearly need to do much more to convince the public that they have the answers.

Seeing off the Sinn Féin confidence motion should be the first step in a determined campaign by the Coalition parties to expose the dangers of the pie in the sky policies being offered as an alternative. They also need to do far more to alert the voters to some of the sinister tactics being employed by their opponents.

Martin drew attention to the way in which Sinn Féin has used legal threats and online abuse as weapons to silence and intimidate other members of the Oireachtas and the media. Strangely, although these tactics are widely known in the media they attract little comment.

The problem facing the Coalition is that voters are often not interested in hearing about the dangers of the unknown. Look at the way those campaigning for the UK to remain in the EU were dismissed as promoting “Project Fear”. All of the developments since the British people voted to leave the EU have amply justified the Remain campaign warnings but the political system and much of the electorate in the UK are still unwilling to accept the reality that Brexit has been so damaging.

What the Government here needs to do over the next two years is to develop a coherent and positive message for the future and one that can be summed up in a simple slogan. That is easier said than done but creative thinking is urgently required if they are to survive the populist onslaught.