Russia scaling back ambitions as it claims first phase of war complete

Moscow signalled on Friday it was scaling back its ambitions in Ukraine to focus on territory claimed by Russian-backed separatists in the east as Ukrainian forces went on the offensive to recapture towns outside the capital Kyiv.

In the first big sign that Western sanctions on Moscow were impacting investment from China, sources said state-run Sinopec Group, Asia’s biggest oil refiner, halted talks on a petrochemical investment and a venture to market Russian gas.

In the month since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops have met stiff resistance and failed to capture any major city.

They have instead been bombarding and encircling cities, laying waste to residential areas and driving around a quarter of Ukraine’s 44 million people from their homes.

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More than 3.7 million of them have fled abroad, half to neighbouring Poland, where US president Joe Biden met soldiers from the US Army’s 82nd Airborne Division bolstering the NATO alliance’s eastern flank.

“Hundreds of thousands of people are being cut off from help by Russian forces and are besieged in places like Mariupol,” Biden said, referring to the besieged southeastern port.

“It’s like something out of a science fiction movie.”

Battlelines near Kyiv have been frozen for weeks with two main Russian armoured columns stuck northwest and east of the capital. A British intelligence report described a Ukrainian counter-offensive that had pushed Russians back in the east.

“Ukrainian counter-attacks, and Russian forces falling back on overextended supply lines, have allowed Ukraine to reoccupy towns and defensive positions up to 35km east of Kyiv,” the report said. Britain has given Ukraine arms and military training.

In an announcement that appeared to indicate more limited goals, the Russian defence ministry said a first phase of its operation was mostly complete and it would now focus on “liberating” the breakaway eastern Donbass region.

“The combat potential of the Armed Forces of Ukraine has been considerably reduced, which ... makes it possible to focus our core efforts on achieving the main goal, the liberation of Donbass,” said Sergei Rudskoi, head of the Russian General Staff’s Main Operational Directorate.

Moscow calls its actions in Ukraine a “special military operation” to demilitarise and “denazify” Ukraine. Ukraine and its Western allies have dismissed this as a baseless pretext for an unprovoked war.

Russia’s defence ministry said 1,351 Russian soldiers had been killed 3,825 wounded, the Interfax news agency reported. Ukraine says 15,000 Russian soldiers have died.

Volodymyr Borysenko, mayor of Boryspol, an eastern suburb where Kyiv’s main airport is located, said 20,000 civilians had evacuated the area, answering a call to clear out so Ukrainian troops could counter-attack. Ukrainian forces recaptured a nearby village the previous day and would have pushed on but halted to avoid putting civilians in danger, he said.

On the other main front outside Kyiv, to the capital’s northwest, Ukrainian forces have been trying to encircle Russian troops in the suburbs of Irpin, Bucha and Hostomel, reduced to ruins by heavy fighting.

In Bucha, 25km northwest of Kyiv, a small group of Ukrainian troops armed with anti-tank missiles was digging foxholes. A Ukrainian soldier who identified himself only as Andriy told Reuters he enlisted as soon as the invasion began.

“I told my wife to grab the children and to hide in the basement, and I went to the drafting station and joined my unit straight away,” he said.

Civilian deaths

The United Nations said it had confirmed 1,081 civilian deaths and 1,707 injuries in Ukraine since the February 24th invasion, adding that the real toll was likely higher.

Mariupol, a city of 400,000 before the war, has been among the worst hit by the Russian bombardment. Tens of thousands of people are still believed to be trapped with little access to food, power or heat.

Local officials, citing witness accounts, said they estimated that 300 people were killed in the bombing of a theatre in Mariupol on March 16th. The city council had not previously provided a toll and made clear it was not possible to determine an exact figure after the incident. Russia has denied bombing the theatre.

The governor of Ukraine’s Donetsk region, Pavlo Kyrylenko, said Ukrainian forces still controlled Mariupol. Around 65,000 people had fled but efforts to organise mass evacuations under ceasefires had mostly failed.

The cities of Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy in the east have also endured devastating bombardment. Chernihiv was effectively surrounded by Russian forces, its governor said.

Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba said peace negotiations with Russia were difficult.

“The Ukrainian delegation has taken a strong position and does not relinquish its demands,” he said. “We insist, first of all, on a ceasefire, security guarantees and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

Western sanctions have isolated Russia from global trade. President Vladimir Putin accused the West of trying to “cancel” Russian culture, including composers Pyotr Tchaikovsky and Sergei Rachmaninov, comparing it to actions by Nazi Germany in the 1930s.

China is the biggest power not to have condemned the Russian invasion and has repeatedly voiced opposition to the sanctions.

The Reuters report that Sinopec had suspended discussions about investments potentially worth €455 million was the first concrete sign that sanctions are affecting trade between Moscow and Beijing.

“Companies will rigidly follow Beijing’s foreign policy in this crisis,” said an executive at a Chinese state oil company.

“There’s no room whatsoever for companies to take any initiatives in terms of new investment.” – Reuters