Ireland after Brexit: Where do we stand in the EU?

In 1975, only two years after Ireland, the UK and Denmark joined the then European Economic Community (EEC), Garret FitzGerald, minister for foreign affairs, made an important observation about Ireland's European vocation. The UK had just reconfirmed its own membership in a contentious referendum.

EEC membership, FitzGerald argued in a speech to the Royal Irish Academy, offered the prospect of eliminating what he described as the “psychological hang-ups that were an inevitable feature of the highly polarised bilateral relationship which had previously existed between Ireland and Britain”.

Ireland was, in Robert Emmet’s words, finding its “place among the nations”, academic Patrick Keatinge observed.

That assertion of independence and political autonomy from our neighbour was, and has been, a core rationale of Irish commitment to the EU, almost as much as the union’s economic benefits. It is also, arguably, a key underlying psychological basis for the continuing high levels of support in Ireland for the union and membership.

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Ireland's willingness to stay, irrespective of whether the UK left or not, was noted and appreciated by European partners, and led them to see Irish membership in a different light

“It is interesting to note the reaction in Ireland after two years of membership,” FitzGerald added 45 years ago, “to the question of whether Ireland should remain in the community if the British electorate decided against membership in their referendum.

"Before Ireland joined the community very few voices had been raised – my own being one of these few! – to suggest that it should be a member of the community even if the United Kingdom were not, but three years later there was almost equal unanimity on the part of political and public opinion that if Britain left, Ireland should remain a member."

He argued that the shift in perspective reflected a new national confidence in our ability to “stand on our own feet” and “represented a new stage in the eight-century-long period of Irish history that had been dominated by Ireland’s relations with her nearest neighbour, to the virtual exclusion of external considerations”.

Brexit will remain firmly on the EU agenda, dominated for the next few years by the "future relationship" talks on trade and other issues

Importantly, he said, Ireland’s willingness to stay, irrespective of whether the UK left or not, was noted and appreciated by European partners, and led them to see Irish membership in a different light than hitherto. Ireland was not a diplomatic or economic appendage of the UK and would never again be seen as such.

That attitude was most clearly manifest in recent years in the remarkable solidarity of the EU27 in the Brexit talks.

And now, Brexit. The UK is leaving after another referendum. Once again the issue arose – in truth, it never really arose beyond the most limited circles – of following her out. No way.

Polls show Ireland's voters retain the most positive image in the EU of the EU (64 per cent); are the most satisfied with how democracy works in the EU (75 per cent). Only one in four (25 per cent) believe that Ireland would do better outside the EU.

Brexit will, however, remain firmly on the EU agenda, dominated for the next few years by the “future relationship” talks on trade and other issues. It will also remain the central imperative of Irish diplomacy.

But does Brexit change the argument? Is the EU’s character changed by the departure of one of its largest members?

And how does Ireland respond to the loss of what was, after all, a most important ally whose attitude to many issues, like free trade, mirrored Ireland’s, and which often provided useful cover for Dublin on matters of mutual interest?

Public discussions

“The UK was a bellwether for Ireland,” David O’Sullivan, the former Irish secretary general of the commission, argues. Now “we are going to be our own weatherbell”.

Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel has recently spoken of Brexit as "a wake-up call" for the EU. Above all it exposed a growing gulf between citizens and the institutions and the political class. EU leaders are launching a broad public rethink about what the EU means, its political direction and the way it is governed. Most importantly, how it relates to citizens.

The two-year rolling Conference on the Future of Europe, to begin in May, will engage with all the institutions, MEPs, regional and local authorities, national parliaments, and civil society, all guaranteed an “equal” role. The idea is also to have citizens’ forums on Europe in every member state. The promise is – well, not exactly a promise – that what a majority, whatever that is, comes up with will be implemented.

Taxation and foreign policy are in the commission's sights, both areas where Ireland has jealously guarded national prerogatives

That discussion will have to happen in Ireland too. If the conference produces treaty changes Ireland will again probably have to have a referendum, not a prospect relished by the Government. The experience of two defeats on EU treaty changes is still raw, and politicians are nervous about challenging the mistaken assumption that all EU treaty changes require referendums in Ireland whether or not they impinge on sovereignty.

O'Sullivan and Prof Brigid Laffan, of the European University in Florence, both believe that further treaty changes are almost certain to emerge from the conference, and warn of the need to ensure that there is extensive public discussions in Ireland on Europe's future through citizens' conventions or forum-like bodies. "We need an honest debate," he argues. "A referendum can't be prepared in six weeks."

The conference is expected, among other things, to propose institutional changes to broaden the sense of citizens’ ownership of the EU, for example the way the commission president is appointed and transnational lists for electing MEPs. It may also seek to streamline decision-making by expanding areas of non-veto voting.

Taxation and foreign policy are in the commission’s sights, both areas where Ireland has jealously guarded national prerogatives. It is time, perhaps, to look again at such questions.

It is also likely to look at new means of ensuring respect among member states for the rule of law. Strong resistance can be expected from Poland and Hungary, but Ireland is likely to want to place itself strongly with the mainstream on the issue.

Small states

The British departure will also change the dynamics of politics inside the union. A recent Danish foreign minister observed that in the EU there are only two kinds of states: small states and those that do not yet realise they are small states.

Small states thrive by building alliances, if necessary issue by issue, an imperative which Ireland has in the last couple of years begun with energy both through direct contacts and by embracing new policy positions.

Such outreach is part of a determined branding by Ireland of itself as very much part of the mainstream politically, part of old Europe committed to the building of what the Treaty of Rome calls “an ever closer union”.

But it may come at a price – some sacred cows may need to be sacrificed . Speaking to a seminar of Irish ambassadors in Dublin recently, Ireland's trade commissioner Phil Hogan reportedly emphasised the crucial challenge of being sensitive to the concerns of partners. There is a price, he warned, for not repaying solidarity.

O’Sullivan argues that above all Ireland needs to be seen as a constructive member of the club. The key is “understanding trade-offs” .

Not that there is necessarily a direct quid pro quo for adopting common positions, but a subtle price is paid over time if, for example, Ireland continues to block widely backed taxation of digital companies.

On that issue Dublin has been strongly signalling that it will come aboard now with any consensus on a common international system that emerges from current OECD discussions. At a considerable cost to the exchequer.

Finances

On the difficult issue of the next EU budget, bridging the €12 billion Brexit gap is proving particularly difficult. Now a net contributor to EU finances, Ireland has taken care to position itself publicly on the side of concerns of the small newer member states.

Unlike other net contributors, which are demanding cuts, Ireland has lent its support to the Friends of Cohesion group of poorer countries and the Taoiseach has on several occasions spoken of Ireland’s willingness to substantially raise its contribution to the budget.

Ireland has shown a willingness to engage in European defence co-operation, at one time a taboo, by signing up to two programmes

Ireland has also strongly backed Balkan demands for enlargement talks to open with North Macedonia and Albania. These have been stymied by France, ostensibly because its wants to "modernise" the accession process, but in reality, as one Irish official was told by French diplomats, because of its unease at the reality that this could mean "six former Yugoslav republics in the EU with six votes, while Germany has only one". Small states take note.

Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe has also engaged with the informal, largely Dutch-Nordic alliance that has become known as the new "Hanseatic League". The group shares conservative fiscal views and appears to want to act as a counterweight to the "profligate" south.

The league “raises two issues that need further debate in Ireland”, Laffan argues. “First, the Hanse League is seen as a coalition of the willing that opposes [French president Emmanuel] Macron’s reform agenda. This is unwise as it may be seen as a proxy for German opposition to reform and enable Germany to hide behind it.

“Second, it is seen as a coalition that distinguishes itself from Europe’s south and east central Europe. It is not wise to accentuate division in Europe between north and south, east and west. There is merit in Ireland having structured engagement with other member states but there should be a political debate on the merits and form of such co-operation.”

Ireland has also shown a willingness to engage in European defence co-operation, at one time a taboo, by signing up to two programmes in the structured co-operation known as Pesco.

Ireland has significant catch-up to do on climate change, which is now the top priority of the commission and council

Such limited engagement, however, still leaves Ireland perceived as an outlier in the security domain, with some calls – notably by the Fine Gael EPP group – for a reappraisal of what we mean by neutrality, a concept that is now largely absent from the language of allies such as Finland and Sweden. But, Irish officials insist, there is no pressure on Ireland to join Nato.

Team player

On contentious issues such as burden-sharing on migration, Ireland has wanted to show itself as very much a team player with a pledge to relocate 4,000 refugees from Syria.

Closer co-operation on justice and home affairs remains problematic – Ireland is constrained by its commitment to the Common Travel Area with the UK from becoming part of the passport-free travel area that is the Schengen zone. That will not change.

And legal unease here about the differences between the British/Irish common law regime and the European civil law (Roman) system has meant a refusal to engage in the new European Prosecutors’ Office.

Ireland has significant catch-up to do on climate change, which is now the top priority of the commission and council.

Laffan argues that at domestic level the successful work of co-ordinating Ireland’s response to Brexit, led by the Departments of the Taoiseach, Foreign Affairs, and Finance, needs to be replicated with a reinforced cross-sectoral approach to co-ordination of EU policy by government. Not least in areas like the environment, involving multiple departments.

As a member of the euro, Ireland also has a strong interest in the slow and difficult work being done to complete economic and monetary union. The work, championed by outgoing commission president Jean Claude Juncker, of "strengthening the international role of the euro" by making it a world reserve currency, an alternative to the dollar, may be more difficult – events and the world economy will determine the standing of the currency, one Irish diplomat argues.

He quotes Shakespeare’s Henry IV:

Glendower: “I can call the spirits from the vasty deep.”

Hotspur: “Why, so can I, or so can any man; But will they come, when you do call for them?”

It is an apt metaphor not only for the euro but, as the champion of EU reform Macron is discovering, for timid partners for the EU integration process after Brexit. “Will they come?”