Newton Emerson: The real U-turn on a Brexit sea border has been by the DUP

In recent weeks, as the British government has conceded it will implement a Brexit sea border, the media has been unable to resist highlighting comments over the past two years by Boris Johnson, both before and after he became prime minister, vowing never to implement a sea border.

Some of these promises were made in person to the DUP and business leaders in Northern Ireland.

Fun though it is to review Johnson's creative relationship with the truth, it is hardly illuminating. Even two years ago his audiences would have known to take him seriously but not literally, rather than literally but not seriously, as the aphorism about Donald Trump puts it. A sea border only became more inevitable as time went on.

The truly revealing U-turn has been by the DUP, whose pledges of stubbornness tend to be both serious and literal.

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The DUP started saying the deal could be the best of both worlds for the North

The unionist party flatly rejected any trade barrier between Britain and the North throughout the tenure of Johnson's predecessor Theresa May. It threatened to bring down her government to prevent what it warned would be the end of the union.

By last summer, with Johnson in office, the back-pedalling began. The DUP said it would accept a regulatory sea border for agrifood, noting this would involve little change in principle, although it would be a significant change in practice.

By last October, with Johnson and the Irish Government stitching up a far higher barrier than May ever wanted, the DUP tried constructing an elaborate smokescreen around a Stormont veto.

In December, with Johnson and his deal secured by a general election, the DUP fell silent, not even mentioning Brexit in campaign broadcasts.

Then came a reverse ferret worthy of Johnson himself. The DUP started saying the deal could be the best of both worlds for the North.

At a newly-restored Stormont, the DUP joined all five executive parties in a Brexit committee. By the end of January, it was boasting of “joint proposals” for managing the sea border.

By late February, Commons leader Jeffrey Donaldson was promising Northern Ireland businesses "new opportunities" through access to EU and UK trade.

Much of the DUP’s reversal has been left to Donaldson: the media could have fun digging up his previous statements on a sea border being “absurd”, “unconstitutional” and “the end of the Good Friday Agreement”.

The past few months suggest the DUP will return to actively promoting the sea border, having realised it needs to own the consequences of its Brexit mistakes

As recently as last November, Donaldson said Johnson’s deal would “destabilise Northern Ireland”.

The DUP’s U-turn has not received the attention it deserves due to the party’s sudden irrelevance at Westminster, and the blizzard of detail around Stormont’s return, followed by the coronavirus epidemic.

Now that Brexit is back in the headlines there have been reports of unionist objections to the sea border as its complexities come into focus. However, these objections are from the Ulster Unionist Party, which is having a poke at its electoral rival.

The DUP is biting its tongue but the past few months suggest it will return to actively promoting the sea border, having realised it needs to own the consequences of its Brexit mistakes.

While Johnson’s deal is definitely not the best of both worlds for Northern Ireland, the worst of both worlds can be avoided. Stormont has a role to play via lobbying for business, participating in the committees overseeing the Ireland/Northern Ireland protocol, and by demonstrating political consensus and a willingness to co-operate.

The sea border is a genuine solution to what has become, rightly or wrongly, the overarching Brexit problem of keeping trade barriers out of public sight. Concern has now moved on to administrative costs and the prospect of higher prices and empty shelves as a result. Hauliers and retailers believe this can be mitigated through straightforward measures as long as work on them gets under way. The DUP might be forgiven its sins if it is seen to be encouraging that process.

Unionism has a poor track record of keeping its head amid alleged perils to the union. The DUP is facing claims of creating an “economic united Ireland” from nationalists and republicans, rival unionists and critics of Brexit everywhere.

The sea border is happening, deal or no deal, thanks to Johnson replacing May's backstop with a frontstop

These claims are harder to brazen out when they are endorsed by the British government, which has continued portraying outworkings of the protocol as an infringement of its sovereignty.

The row over an EU office in Belfast to help administer checks is a bad omen: the British government has said no and the DUP has fallen in behind it, mainly through national solidarity but perhaps tempted by a final hope of hampering EU plans.

Unionism has no good reason to be drawn into this kind of brinkmanship as London and Brussels try to conclude a trade deal. The sea border is happening, deal or no deal, thanks to Johnson replacing May’s backstop with a frontstop.

Making it work as smoothly and uncontroversially as possible is the best the DUP can hope for. The party is fortunate a small contribution to that is not entirely above its pay grade.