After a torrid night, focus now shifts to stability of the British government

Enormous. Catastrophic. Crushing. Breathtaking.

These are some of the words used last night to describe the monumental defeat visited upon British prime minister Theresa May's doomed Brexit deal.

There can be no doubt that it was a torrid evening for May who suffered the ignominy of setting a record for the largest defeat for a sitting government in British history. MPs voted by 432 votes to 202 to reject the deal.

And while it was the pure political drama that took centre stage last night, the focus today will shift on to the very stability of the British government.

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Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn has said that the party intends to table a motion of no-confidence in the government. Time is being put aside to allow that debate to happen. In effect, Corbyn could be setting in train a series of events that could culminate in an election: an election which would test the mettle of the Labour Party and shine the spotlight firmly on their own Brexit policy or lack thereof.

The feeling is that May will muddle through, with both the DUP and the hardline Brexiteers expected to back her. If she pulls it off, her next move will be to hold a series of meetings with MPs to try and get them to change their minds.

But there isn’t much give: May’s spokesman stressed last night that she still wants to pursue an independent trade policy, which would seem to rule out a customs union. Her red lines remain. Any attempt to glean some flexibility from the EU is also likely to prove fruitless: there is little chance of an emergency summit or a re-opening of the withdrawal agreement.

Some MPs support a Norway-plus style deal as a longer-term solution. On the upside this would give the UK access to the single market alongside a new customs arrangement while still allowing the government to leave the Common Agricultural Policy and Common Fisheries Policy. On the downside, it would sign the UK up to the four freedoms; the freedom of movement of goods, services, capital and people. This would mean May would have to relinquish a key red line on the control of borders, which seems unlikely. Furthermore, the “plus” element would limit the UK’s ability to strike its own trade deals.

Regardless of what new proposal she brings to parliament on Monday, the fact remains that the withdrawal agreement needs to be signed off before talks can move on to the parameters of a potential future relationship. And a vital part of that deal will continue to be the insurance clause on the Border. It would appear that all roads lead back to the backstop.

That is unless they stop the clock, extend article 50 and hold a second referendum. Other than that, the best hope seems to be some form of political declaration that goes alongside the withdrawal agreement, perhaps clarifying the nature of the backstop. But the scale of Tuesday’s defeat appears to suggest that minor tweaks will not cut the mustard.

With 10 weeks to go, the political stakes have never been higher.

Here's our lead on yesterday's defeat and today's vote.

Dealing with a no-deal

The other reality of last night’s heavy defeat is that a no-deal Brexit has now become more likely.

The Cabinet discussed a number of contingency plans yesterday in the areas of transport and health.

If a hard Brexit materialises, an omnibus Brexit Bill with 17 sections would make its way through the Oireachtas in late February and throughout March. The Irish political system would be convulsed by Brexit contingency planning.

New memos would be brought every second week, the Tánaiste Simon Coveney indicated.

As Harry McGee reports today, there is an incredibly tight timeframe to get this mega Bill passed.

And what of that unpalatable hard Brexit reality, the hard border? Well it was red faces at a Government briefing yesterday after Coveney contradicted Minister for Transport Shane Ross about potential Border-related checks. Pat Leahy has the details.

It's not just Brexit on the political agenda, by the way. There are five other Bills on the legislative priority list including a Bill to set up a cervical check tribunal; provision for a new referendum on divorce to occur later this year and a Bill increasing the number of European Parliament seats in Ireland by two to 13.

Best Reads

Miriam Lord is in flying form with a piece on the Dáil's first day back after Christmas.

What a no-deal Brexit means for tea and biccies from Conor Pope.

Here's The Irish Times view on Theresa May's defeat.

Simon Carswell explores why the Border is a sticking point and explains what is likely to happen next.

The plan to celebrate the centenary of the Dáil has been criticised by Labour Senator Ivana Bacik for not appreciating the role of women.

Playbook

Dáil

The Minister for Culture Josepha Madigan will kick proceedings off with questions on her brief at 10.30am.

Leaders’ Questions begin in earnest at noon.

The Taoiseach Leo Varadkar will take questions at 1.02pm.

Topical issues will be taken at 2.47pm.

Government business will be taken at 6.05pm with four Bills up for consideration including the Criminal Law Sexual Offences Bill 2018 to extend and strengthen existing criminal law on sexual offences.

Business in the Dáil is due to end at 10.15pm.

Seanad

The Seanad does not return until next week.

Committees

The Joint Committee on Health will meet at 9am to delve into cost overruns in the new national children’s hospital. Representatives from the national children’s paediatric development board will be present.

At 3pm, the Budgetary Oversight Committee will examine expenditure in the health budget with the Minister for Finance Paschal Donohoe

At 9.30am the Select Committee on Transport and Tourism will meet for committee stage of the Aircraft Noise (Dublin Airport) Regulation Bill 2018, for the regulation of airport noise in Dublin airport.