World's population to rise to six billion next month

The world's population will reach six billion next month, double what it was in 1960 and only 12 years after it passed the five billion mark, a United Nations report says.

The UN has designated October 12th as "The Day of Six Billion" and estimates that almost half of all people at that time will be under 25; more than 95 per cent will be living in developing countries; and another 78 million people - equivalent to the population of Germany - are being added to the total every year.

But the report, by the UN Population Fund, also notes that population growth is slowing. Annual additions peaked in the five years to 1990, and the growth rate has fallen from 2.4 to 1.8 per cent. But the UNFPA warns that a continued slow-down is "not inevitable".

Global population has quadrupled this century, the organisation says. In 1900, the figure stood at 1.5 billion; it reached two billion in 1927; and the third, fourth and fifth billion marks were passed in 1960, 1974 and 1987, respectively.

But there are huge geographic divergences. Africa's population has trebled since 1960, when it had only half as many people as Europe. By 2050, it is estimated that Africans will outnumber Europeans three to one. Among industrialised states, the US is the only country where large population increases are still projected, mainly because of immigration. By contrast, despite the fact that AIDS has reduced life expectancy by several years in 29 African countries, continued high fertility means their populations are unlikely to decline.

The report cites the example of Botswana where, with one in four adults infected, life expectancy has fallen in the past decade from 61 to 47 years, and is expected to plunge to 38 by 2010.